The Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres kick off their National League Wild Card series at Wrigley Field on Tuesday, with both teams riding momentum into the postseason after strong finishes to the regular season.
Chicago enters as slight favorites after winning four of five to close out the campaign, powered by a late-season offensive surge that saw them plate 43 runs in their final six games.
The Padres countered by winning seven of eight down the stretch to secure their playoff spot, setting up a compelling first-round matchup between two teams that peaked at the right time.
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres matchup, our predictive model gives the Cubs a 67.33% chance of defeating the Padres.
Chicago Cubs: 67.33% win probability
- Home field advantage at Wrigley Field provides significant boost in late-season matchups
- Strong late-inning bullpen performance has been crucial in close games this season
- Veteran leadership and playoff experience give edge in high-pressure September contests
San Diego Padres: 32.67% win probability
- Road struggles have plagued the Padres throughout the campaign
- Inconsistent starting rotation depth becomes magnified in crucial late-season games
- Offensive production has been sporadic against quality National League pitching
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Cubs vs. Padres Odds
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Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres preview
The Cubs head into their National League Wild Card opener riding the hottest wave of their season, having rattled off 43 runs in their final six games to close out the regular campaign.
Matthew Boyd has been virtually unbeatable at Wrigley Field this year, posting a sterling 12-1 record at home compared to his woeful 2-7 road mark, which sets up perfectly for Chicago's playoff debut.
San Diego counters with Nick Pivetta, who has shown troubling splits away from Petco Park with a 3.55 road ERA that jumps significantly from his 2.36 home number.
The Cubs' late-season power surge has been led by Seiya Suzuki, who broke out of a lengthy homer drought with four bombs in his last four games after managing just two since the All-Star break.
Both teams scraped into October on strong finishes, with the Padres winning seven of eight to punch their postseason ticket, setting up what should be a tightly contested wild card clash.
The pitching matchup heavily favors Chicago's home-field advantage, as Boyd has dominated at Wrigley while Pivetta struggled mightily in his lone appearance there this season, lasting just three innings.
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