MLB Best Bets October 5: Yankees vs Blue Jays ALDS Game 2 Expert Picks

Game Two of the Yankees vs Blue Jays ALDS showdown headlines today's MLB playoff slate, with sharp betting angles emerging around both starting pitchers and key offensive matchups.Our experts are split on the outcome but united on value plays, backing Yankees moneyline at -150 while targeting Vladimir Guerrero Jr. props after his dominant Game One performance and season-long success against New York.With Max Fried's elite contact suppression facing rookie Trey Yesavage's fastball-slider combo, we break down the best MLB picks and betting strategies for this pivotal postseason clash. The Yankees hold a significant pitching advantage with Max Fried facing rookie Trey Yesavage in what appears to be a mismatch.Yesavage has concerning hard-hit rate numbers that would rank in the bottom 10th percentile if he qualified, exactly the profile New York's lineup has punished all season.Fried's elite hard-contact suppression (90th percentile) gives him the edge against a Blue Jays lineup that relies on avoiding strikeouts rather than power.While Toronto won Game 1 convincingly, the underlying matchup dynamics heavily favor New York in this spot.The Yankees need to even the series before heading home, and Fried gives them the best chance to accomplish that goal."},{"id":"c0e3a2df-d070-4923-a3bf-98e4998bd405","pickName":"Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+125)","oddsValue":"+125","partnerId":"","description":"Guerrero Jr. has been dominant against Yankees pitching all season, posting a .373 average with 1.007 OPS across 13 regular season games.He's averaging 2.23 bases per game against New York and just went 3-for-4 with a home run in Game 1, continuing his hot streak.His career numbers against Max Fried are solid with 5 hits in 20 at-bats, three for extra bases, showing he can handle the Yankees ace.Guerrero has strong metrics against Fried's primary pitches, with .367 expected batting average against the cutter and .363 average against sinkers.He's cashed this prop in six straight meetings against the Yankees, making seven consecutive a reasonable target."},{"id":"5d0e365b-8675-48e6-8dee-8b26ba2b7866","pickName":"Trey Yesavage Under 4.5 strikeouts","oddsValue":"under 4.5","partnerId":"","description":"Multiple experts expect a potentially short outing from the rookie Yesavage due to performance concerns or quick hook from management.His limited arsenal of primarily fastball and slider makes him predictable against an experienced Yankees lineup in a high-pressure playoff spot.The concerning hard-hit rate data suggests he could get into trouble early, leading to an abbreviated start before reaching strikeout targets.This is a difficult assignment for any rookie, let alone one with Yesavage's limited big league experience in such a crucial game.The under provides value given the likelihood of early removal if things go sideways against New York's dangerous lineup."},{"id":"7c325a6f-3ea9-4ffb-951a-a78a7dc76d38","pickName":"Ben Rice home run (+500)","oddsValue":"+500","partnerId":"","description":"Rice ranks in the top 20 percentiles for hard-hit rate against both fastballs and sliders, which make up Yesavage's primary arsenal.The rookie pitcher's limited repertoire makes him predictable, and Rice has the specific skill set to capitalize on those pitch types.Yesavage's concerning hard-contact numbers suggest he's vulnerable to giving up long balls to hitters who can barrel up his offerings.The +500 odds provide excellent value for a hitter with Rice's profile facing a pitcher with Yesavage's weaknesses in a hitter-friendly playoff environment.Rice's power potential combined with the matchup dynamics makes this a worthwhile longshot play with significant upside."}],"homeTeam":{"name":"Blue Jays","logo":"https://storage.googleapis.com/kibg-uploads/uploads/2025/07/1753281611-team-logo-70WJD6H6.png"},"awayTeam":{"name":"Yankees","logo":"https://storage.googleapis.com/kibg-uploads/uploads/2025/07/1753281470-team-logo-F9T5K1G6.png"},"venue":"Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario","matchDate":{"value":"2025-10-05T20:08:00.000Z","timezone":"America/New_York"}}]" tablefooter=" Betting on the MLB?Sporting Post is your trusted hub for MLB betting coverage. We break down expert MLB predictions and deliver today’s MLB best bets with clear, data-driven analysis. Want secure and reliable options? Explore our top picks for MLB betting sites.

Game	Time	Pick
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