The Detroit Tigers look to level their ALDS series against the Seattle Mariners on Sunday at T-Mobile Park, with ace Tarik Skubal taking the mound against Luis Castillo in a crucial Game 2 showdown.
Both teams enter with nearly identical offensive numbers, averaging around 4.7 runs per game, but Seattle holds home-field advantage after taking 90 wins in the regular season compared to Detroit's 87.
With the Tigers opening as slight underdogs at +110 despite their playoff momentum, this pitching duel between two proven starters could swing on which bullpen holds up better in October pressure.
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers matchup, our predictive model gives the Mariners a 61% chance of defeating the Tigers.
Seattle Mariners: 61% win probability
- Home field advantage at T-Mobile Park where they've historically performed well in late-season matchups
- Strong bullpen depth that should provide stability in close games during playoff-contending scenarios
- Experienced lineup with proven ability to manufacture runs in pressure situations
Detroit Tigers: 39% win probability
- Road struggles typical of young teams facing hostile environments in crucial games
- Inconsistent starting rotation that has shown vulnerability against quality opposition
- Limited offensive production in clutch situations, particularly with runners in scoring position
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Mariners vs. Tigers Odds
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Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers preview
The Tigers head into Game 2 of the ALDS looking to even the series at T-Mobile Park, with ace Tarik Skubal taking the ball against Seattle's Luis Castillo in what shapes up as a pitcher's duel.
Skubal has been Detroit's cornerstone this season with a 3.08 ERA and elite strikeout numbers, while Castillo brings veteran playoff experience and his signature changeup to keep the Tigers' bats quiet.
Detroit's offense has been inconsistent but dangerous when they connect, averaging 4.7 runs per game behind 198 home runs, though they'll need to solve Castillo's puzzle after he limited them effectively in their previous meetings.
The Mariners counter with a slightly better offensive attack that posted 238 homers and similar run production, but their bullpen has been shaky with just a 62.3% save percentage that could become a factor in late innings.
Both teams sport solid defensive units, with Seattle holding a slight edge in fielding percentage, making this likely a low-scoring affair where every mistake gets magnified.
With the series potentially heading back to Detroit tied 1-1, this Sunday night showdown carries enormous weight for both clubs' championship aspirations.
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