The Philadelphia Phillies face elimination Wednesday night at Dodger Stadium, trailing 2-0 in the NLDS with their season hanging in the balance against a Los Angeles squad that sits just one win away from the Championship Series.
Aaron Nola takes the mound for Philadelphia looking to extend the series, while the Dodgers counter with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has been stellar in his postseason debut with a 3-0 record.
With Philadelphia's offense managing just minimal production through two games and Los Angeles holding home-field advantage, the stakes couldn't be higher for what could be the Phillies' final game of 2025.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies matchup, our predictive model gives the Dodgers a 54% chance of defeating the Phillies.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 54% win probability
- Home field advantage in October provides crucial momentum (Home teams historically win 54% of postseason games)
- Deep rotation depth with multiple Cy Young caliber starters (Team ERA ranks among NL's best)
- Offensive firepower with multiple MVP-caliber hitters in the lineup (Led NL in runs scored this season)
Philadelphia Phillies: 46% win probability
- Road struggles in high-pressure October environments (Road teams win just 46% of postseason matchups)
- Bullpen inconsistency has been exposed in crucial late-inning situations (Bullpen ERA inflated in pressure spots)
- Offensive inconsistency against elite pitching staffs like LA's rotation (Lower OPS against teams with sub-3.50 ERA)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Dodgers vs. Phillies Odds
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies preview
The Los Angeles Dodgers have the Philadelphia Phillies on the ropes, leading 2-0 in this NLDS and needing just one more victory to punch their ticket to the Championship Series.
Aaron Nola takes the mound for Philly in what could be their final game of the season, and while the veteran right-hander has struggled at times this year (5-10, 6.01 ERA), he's historically pitched well at Dodger Stadium with a 3.76 ERA in four career starts.
The Phillies offense has been ice cold through the first two games, managing just a .214 team batting average and striking out in over 30% of their plate appearances.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets the ball for Los Angeles, and the ground-ball specialist has been solid in his postseason debut season, though his 8.6% walk rate during the regular season could spell trouble if Philadelphia can work some counts.
The Dodgers bullpen is showing signs of fatigue after heavy usage in Games 1 and 2, which could give the Phillies an opening if Nola can keep this game close through the middle innings.
With elimination looming, Philadelphia desperately needs their veteran core of J.T. Realmuto and Trea Turner to break out of their early series funk and give their pitching staff something to work with.
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