The Los Angeles Dodgers find themselves on the brink of advancing to the NLCS after a crucial 8-2 loss in Game 3 that allowed Philadelphia to cut their series lead to 2-1 heading into Thursday's pivotal matchup at Dodger Stadium.
Tyler Glasnow takes the mound for LA looking to close out the series, while Philadelphia counters with Cristopher Sanchez as both teams carry nearly identical offensive firepower into this decisive Game 4 clash.
With the Phillies installed as -130 road favorites despite trailing in the series, oddsmakers are banking on Philadelphia's momentum from their dominant Game 3 performance to force a Game 5 back in LA.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies matchup, our predictive model gives the Phillies a 60.5% chance of defeating the Dodgers.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 39.5% win probability
- Inconsistent starting rotation beyond ace pitcher creating early deficits (4.85 ERA from rotation in last 15 games)
- Struggles against elite right-handed pitching with reduced power numbers (Just .198 batting average vs RHP over last 20 games)
- Home field disadvantage due to recent poor performance at Dodger Stadium (2-8 record in last 10 home games)
Philadelphia Phillies: 60.5% win probability
- Strong playoff experience with key veterans stepping up in clutch moments (Recent postseason success rate of 67%)
- Elite bullpen depth providing consistent late-game execution (3.12 ERA in high-leverage situations)
- Balanced offensive attack creating consistent run production (League-leading .289 batting average with runners in scoring position)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Dodgers vs. Phillies Odds
These are the best MLB odds we found across major U.S. sportsbooks for this game.
Odds are based on the latest data at publication and are subject to real-time updates.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies preview
The Dodgers face a potential season-ending scenario at home, trailing 2-1 in this NLDS after Philadelphia's dominant 8-2 victory in Game 3 exposed their pitching vulnerabilities.
Tyler Glasnow takes the mound for Los Angeles with his career 3.74 ERA and solid strikeout numbers, but he'll need to contain a Phillies offense that's been efficient all season with 4.8 runs per game.
Philadelphia counters with Cristopher Sanchez, whose 3.25 ERA and ability to limit hard contact could prove crucial in the pressure-packed atmosphere of Dodger Stadium.
The Dodgers' powerful lineup has been their calling card all year, ranking second in MLB with 5.09 runs per contest, but they've struggled to break through against Philadelphia's balanced pitching staff.
Both bullpens have shown vulnerabilities this postseason, with save percentages hovering around 63% for each team, making late-inning execution critical.
This elimination game will likely come down to which team can capitalize on scoring opportunities, as both clubs have proven capable of explosive offensive outbursts throughout the regular season.
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