Burnley and Sunderland clash at Turf Moor on Saturday in what promises to be a tight affair between two sides who struggled defensively in their Premier League openers but know each other well from tight battles last season.
The Clarets will be eager to bounce back from their 3-0 defeat to Tottenham, while Sunderland arrive on the back of an impressive 3-0 victory over West Ham that saw their summer signings make immediate impacts.
With both teams' recent meetings producing just one goal across two fixtures last term, and defensive frailties exposed in their opening matches, this encounter could be decided by fine margins and set piece situations.
Burnley vs. Sunderland prediction: who will win?
For today's Burnley vs Sunderland matchup, our predictive model gives Burnley a 75% chance of defeating Sunderland.
Burnley: 75% win probability
- Home advantage in Championship football where they'll be more familiar with their ground conditions
- Strong defensive structure that could frustrate Sunderland's attacking flow
- Experience playing at this level which gives them tactical awareness against newly promoted sides
Sunderland: 25% win probability
- Away form concerns as they face their first real test on the road this season
- Limited squad depth compared to more established Championship sides like Burnley
- Adjustment period to Championship intensity after their recent promotion could show in tough away fixtures
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts.
Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts.
Burnley vs. Sunderland Odds
Burnley vs. Sunderland preview
Burnley return to Turf Moor nursing wounds from their Premier League opening day humbling at Tottenham, where Richarlison's brilliance overshadowed what was actually a competitive first-half display from Scott Parker's side.
Sunderland arrive in Lancashire riding the high of their stunning 3-0 dismantling of West Ham, though the Black Cats' three goals came from an xG of less than 0.7, suggesting such clinical finishing won't be the norm this season.
The absence of James Trafford, who made crucial penalty saves in last season's goalless draw between these sides, leaves Burnley with new keeper Martin Dubravka looking vulnerable after conceding three at Spurs.
Both teams are missing key players through injury, with Burnley without six first-team options including striker Zeki Amdouni, while Sunderland's defensive woes are compounded by the absence of seven squad members.
History suggests goals will be at a premium here, with their last two Championship meetings producing just one goal between them and both sides struggling to break down organised defences.
Parker's men desperately need points on home soil where they've been near-invincible recently, but Regis Le Bris has Sunderland looking sharp in transition with summer signings like Granit Xhaka adding quality to their midfield.