The Golden State Warriors stand on the verge of completing an upset over the second-seeded Houston Rockets as they take a commanding 3-1 series lead into Game 5 at Toyota Center on Wednesday night.
Jimmy Butler's return has energized the Warriors, with the veteran forward dropping 27 points in Game 4 despite being listed as questionable with a pelvis injury.
The Rockets, desperate to extend their season, will need more consistency from Jalen Green who has struggled throughout the series, while Alperen Sengun looks to build on his 31-point performance from Monday night.
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors matchup, our predictive model gives the Warriors a 60% chance of defeating the Rockets.
Pre-game probabilities
Houston Rockets
Moneyline
Win %
40%
60%
Golden State Warriors
Houston Rockets: 40% win probability
- Poor recent form (LLLWW) with 3 losses in their last 5 games
- Defensive inconsistency (9002 points allowed, ranking middle of the pack defensively)
- Lower scoring efficiency (9372 points scored over 82 games, but with a smaller point differential than top contenders like OKC)
Golden State Warriors: 60% win probability
- Superior win percentage (48-34 record compared to Rockets' 52-30, despite playing in the competitive Western Conference)
- Better defensive efficiency (9060 points allowed across 82 games, nearly 60 points fewer than the Rockets)
- Veteran playoff experience that translates to road wins (Warriors finished just 1 game behind the Rockets despite playing a tougher schedule)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
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Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors preview
The Warriors stand one win away from completing a stunning first-round upset over the second-seeded Rockets after taking a commanding 3-1 series lead with Monday's nail-biting 109-106 victory in San Francisco.
Jimmy Butler, playing through a pelvis injury, has been the X-factor Golden State hoped for when they acquired him, pouring in 27 points in Game 4 including clutch free throws in the final minute.
Houston's offense has sputtered at the worst possible time, with Jalen Green managing single-digit scoring in three of four games despite his 38-point explosion in Game 2.
Alperen Sengun (31 points, 10 rebounds in Game 4) continues to battle inside against Draymond Green's relentless defense, but the Rockets' woeful free-throw shooting (61.3% last game) may have cost them their best chance to even the series.
Golden State's championship experience is showing through, as the veteran core of Curry, Green and Butler appears to be outmaneuvering Houston's talented but playoff-inexperienced squad in crucial moments.
Now heading back to Toyota Center as 4.5-point underdogs, the Warriors look to close out a series where their fifth-ranked offensive efficiency has consistently found ways to overcome Houston's seventh-ranked defense.
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