The Boston Celtics face a must-win situation as they head to Madison Square Garden trailing 0-2 to the New York Knicks in their Eastern Conference Semifinal series.
Despite building 20-point leads in both home games, Boston has watched the resilient Knicks storm back for consecutive one-point victories, raising serious questions about the heavily-favored Celtics' ability to close out games.
With Boston's historically reliable three-point shooting ice cold at just 25% in the series, Game 3 represents a critical turning point that will either vault the Knicks toward a stunning upset or allow the Celtics to reclaim their championship aspirations.
New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics prediction: who will win?
For tonight's New York Knicks vs Boston Celtics matchup, our predictive model gives the Celtics a 72.25% chance of defeating the Knicks.
Pre-game probabilities

New York Knicks
Moneyline
Win %
27.75%
72.25%

Boston Celtics
New York Knicks: 27.75% win probability
- Inconsistent recent performance (WLLLW showing vulnerability in crucial stretch)
- Scoring differential concerns (336 point differential compared to Boston's 747)
- Defensive limitations (9158 points allowed vs Boston's league-best 8787)
Boston Celtics: 72.25% win probability
- Elite defensive efficiency (Only 8787 points allowed all season, lowest in the league)
- Exceptional regular season performance (61 wins ranks 2nd overall in NBA)
- Strong current form (WWLWW in last five games showing momentum)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
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New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics preview
The Knicks have stunned the basketball world by seizing a commanding 2-0 series lead over the top-seeded Celtics, orchestrating back-to-back comebacks from 20-point deficits in Boston.
Madison Square Garden will be electric Saturday afternoon as New York looks to push the desperate Celtics to the brink of elimination.
Boston's vaunted three-point attack has gone ice-cold, shooting a dismal 25% from deep in the series – well below their season average of 36.8%.
While Josh Hart (23 points) and Karl-Anthony Towns (21 points, 17 rebounds) powered the Knicks' Game 2 victory, Jayson Tatum's struggles continued with just 13 points on 5-of-19 shooting.
The Celtics, who swept the regular season series against New York, now face what amounts to a must-win scenario – no NBA team has ever overcome a 3-0 playoff deficit.
Coach Thibodeau's Knicks have embraced a gritty, physical style that's frustrated Boston, with defensive stalwarts OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Hart suffocating the Celtics' normally fluid offense.
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