NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 06/13/2025

The pace factor heavily favors the over in Game 4 between OKC and Indiana. Both teams have been playing at a higher tempo during this series than their postseason averages, creating more scoring opportunities.

Oklahoma City is coming off a relatively low-scoring effort (107 points) in Game 3, but still managed their most efficient 3-point shooting performance of the postseason at 45.5%. This efficiency coupled with their fast pace suggests stronger offensive output in Game 4.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues his dominant Finals run, averaging 32 points per game in the series. With Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren both hitting the 20-point mark in Game 3, OKC's offensive firepower is trending up at the right time.

The Pacers have been offensive juggernauts at home during these playoffs, averaging 118.1 points per game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Their bench scoring from McConnell and Mathurin provides additional firepower beyond their starters.

With defensive attention focused on Haliburton and Siakam, secondary scorers should find open looks throughout the game. The consistent tempo and efficient shooting from both squads makes the over the strongest play in this matchup.

The Pacers have built a reputation as playoff underdogs, winning nine of their last 12 postseason games when getting points. This resilience has been a hallmark of their surprising Finals run.

Home court has been significant in this matchup, with the home team covering in nine of the Thunder's last 10 playoff games. Indiana now hosts with a chance to take a commanding 3-1 series lead.

While Oklahoma City rarely loses consecutive games (last back-to-back losses came in early April), they've struggled against the spread on the road during these playoffs, failing to cover in any away game so far this postseason.

The Pacers are perfect in Game 4s during this playoff run (3-0) and boast a strong 7-2 straight-up record at home in the postseason. Their shooting efficiency (49.5% overall and 39.8% from three) gives them the firepower to keep games close.

With role players like Bennedict Mathurin making significant contributions and the Pacers' 10-4 record as home underdogs in their last 14, there's substantial value in taking the points in what projects to be a competitive contest.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the offensive centerpiece for Oklahoma City throughout the Finals, averaging 32 points per game in the series and 30.1 points across the entire postseason run.

Coming off a loss, the Thunder will likely lean even more heavily on their MVP. Oklahoma City's bounce-back tendencies (8-0 on the road following a loss) suggest an aggressive offensive gameplan centered around their best player.

The Pacers' defensive metrics aren't intimidating – they're allowing 113.3 points per game in the playoffs on 45.3% shooting. SGA's ability to get to his spots and create high-percentage looks should translate well against this defense.

With the series now tilting in Indiana's favor at 2-1, there's added pressure on Oklahoma City's stars to deliver. Historically, elite players elevate their scoring in pivotal Finals games, and SGA fits that profile perfectly.

Gilgeous-Alexander's combination of mid-range shooting, driving ability, and free throw proficiency (nearly 80% at the line) gives him multiple pathways to exceed this points total in what should be a faster-paced, high-scoring Game 4.