The Toronto Blue Jays (61-42) head to Oriole Park at Camden Yards to face the struggling Baltimore Orioles (45-57) in an AL East showdown on Monday night.
Chris Bassitt (11-4, 3.88 ERA) takes the mound for the visiting Blue Jays looking to continue his strong form, while Baltimore counters with Zach Eflin (6-5, 5.78 ERA) who has surrendered 23 earned runs in his last 26.2 innings.
Toronto enters as -145 favorites after demonstrating impressive consistency in the second half of the season, while the Orioles hope home field advantage might spark an upset at +125 odds.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays matchup, our predictive model gives the Blue Jays a 56.33% chance of defeating the Orioles.
Baltimore Orioles: 43.67% win probability
- Struggling home field advantage (7-12 in last 19 home games)
- Bullpen inconsistency (4.32 relief ERA over last 30 days)
- Offensive slump (batting .224 with RISP in July, ranking bottom third in MLB)
Toronto Blue Jays: 56.33% win probability
- Dominant road performance (statistical advantage of over 12% in away games)
- Superior pitching rotation (3.78 team ERA compared to Orioles' 4.15)
- Excellent batting discipline (team OBP of .338, ranking 4th in AL)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays preview
The red-hot Blue Jays roll into Camden Yards for Monday's showdown with the struggling Orioles, bringing their potent offense that's batting .262 as a team and scoring nearly five runs per game.
Toronto sends Chris Bassitt (11-4, 3.88 ERA) to the mound, who's been nearly untouchable lately, allowing just seven earned runs in his last 26+ innings.
Baltimore counters with Zach Eflin, whose recent struggles (23 earned runs in his last 26.2 innings) mirror the team's overall pitching woes that have contributed to their disappointing 47-58 record.
The AL East matchup features contrasting trajectories – Toronto hasn't lost consecutive games since the All-Star break while Baltimore has dropped seven straight night games against American League opponents.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. enters on a tear with multiple hits in five straight night games, while Tyler O'Neill has homered in three consecutive home games for the Orioles.
Despite being 16 games under .500, the Orioles have shown fight at Camden Yards, winning three of their last four as home underdogs – though they'll need significantly more from Eflin to contain Toronto's lineup that's dominated AL East competition with seven wins in their last eight divisional matchups.
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