MLB Best Bets Today: Expert MLB Betting Picks for 08/04/2025

The Miami Marlins come into this matchup riding an impressive five-game winning streak, including a historic sweep of the Yankees. They'll send their ace Sandy Alcantara to the mound, who has been dominant lately with two consecutive scoreless starts.

The Astros, meanwhile, are limping into Miami after being swept in Boston, where they struggled to generate offense all weekend. Their pitching situation looks precarious with converted reliever Jason Alexander making the start—a significant mismatch against Alcantara.

Alexander has been inconsistent at best, posting a 7.36 ERA this season. The Marlins lineup, featuring several lefties and switch hitters, should match up well against him, creating favorable matchups throughout the order.

Alcantara, despite having an up-and-down season overall with a 6.36 ERA, appears to have found his form again. He's won three straight starts and has rediscovered his strikeout abilities, which should neutralize an Astros offense that scored just five runs total in their three-game series against Boston.

This situational spot strongly favors Miami—they're at home with momentum and their best pitcher on the mound against a struggling Houston team that's sending a vulnerable starter to the hill. Both expert analyses point to Miami as the smart play here.

The Milwaukee Brewers enter this matchup with strong momentum, having won five of their last six games while maintaining their lead in the NL Central. Their offense has been clicking, especially on the road where they average an impressive 5.65 runs per game—well above their season average of 4.92 runs per game.

Atlanta, meanwhile, continues to struggle through a disappointing season that has them sitting 15 games out of first place in the NL East. Their recent acquisition of Erick Fedde signals desperation in their pitching staff, as he was designated for assignment by the Cardinals before landing with the Braves.

The pitching matchup heavily favors Milwaukee. Quinn Priester brings a solid 10-2 record with a 3.27 ERA into this start and has been particularly hot lately, going 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last three outings. Fedde, conversely, has struggled mightily with a 5.33 ERA overall and an alarming 9.49 ERA in his last three starts.

Atlanta was already dealing with numerous injuries before losing Austin Riley during Sunday's game. This further depletes a lineup that has struggled to produce consistently this season, averaging just 4.19 runs per game overall and 4.15 runs at home.

With Milwaukee's road offensive prowess facing a struggling pitcher in Fedde, while sending their own hot starter to the mound, the Brewers have multiple pathways to victory in this matchup. The combination of Milwaukee's momentum and Atlanta's struggles makes the Brewers moneyline a strong play.

The Detroit Tigers enter this matchup in excellent form, having won five of their last six games while building an impressive eight-game lead in the AL Central. Conversely, the Minnesota Twins have lost six of their last seven and are clearly in rebuild mode after trading away 40% of their roster at the deadline.

Minnesota's struggles are particularly pronounced on the road, where they're looking to snap a losing streak. Their offensive production has been weak lately, averaging just 2.33 runs over their last three games, well below their season average of 4.15 runs per game.

The pitching matchup heavily favors Detroit. Minnesota sends Simeon Woods Richardson to the mound, who has struggled recently, giving up six runs in his last two starts. Meanwhile, Detroit's Casey Mize brings a solid 9-4 record with a 3.43 ERA into this contest.

Detroit's offense has been clicking, averaging six runs per game in their last three contests. Their .245 batting average against right-handed pitchers should allow them to get to Woods Richardson, who's already surrendered four runs in his last two starts against the Tigers.

With Minnesota fielding what amounts to a new team after their trade deadline moves and Detroit playing confident baseball at home, the Tigers are well-positioned to not just win, but cover the run line in what should be a comfortable victory.

This matchup sets up as a low-scoring affair with two solid pitchers taking the mound. Yusei Kikuchi has been excellent at Angel Stadium this season, posting a 2.48 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 12 home starts. He's been particularly consistent lately, allowing three or fewer earned runs in 16 of his last 17 outings.

On the other side, Adrian Houser brings a stellar 2.10 ERA and 1.22 WHIP into this contest. He's been reliable all season, never allowing more than three earned runs in any start. His track record as an innings-eater (six-plus innings in six of his last seven appearances) helps minimize bullpen exposure.

The Rays have been struggling offensively during their recent slump, going 2-8 in their last ten games. More tellingly, the under has hit in five of their last ten contests with two pushes. Their record against the total this season (44-62-6) strongly favors the under.

Kikuchi has dominated current Rays hitters, holding them to a .198 batting average with a 29.8% strikeout rate in 86 at-bats. This suggests Tampa Bay will have difficulty stringing together enough hits to push the score over the total.

Both teams have reliable pitching staffs, with Tampa Bay posting a 3.87 ERA overall and Los Angeles showing improvement this season. Given the starting pitching matchup and recent offensive struggles, particularly for Tampa Bay, the under looks like the strongest play in this game.

Recent trends point toward a high-scoring affair between these NL West rivals. The Padres have been an offensive force lately, scoring five or more runs in five of their last six games. They're facing a Diamondbacks pitching staff that has surrendered 30 runs in their last six games.

Arizona's bullpen has been particularly vulnerable, ranking 26th in ERA across the league. This creates a favorable situation for San Diego to continue their scoring ways, especially in the later innings. The Diamondbacks themselves have maintained offensive production despite trading away key bats at the deadline.

The starting pitching matchup doesn't suggest a pitcher's duel. J.P. Sears makes his Padres debut after posting a 4.95 ERA this season with Oakland and Seattle. His road struggles (4.55 ERA away from home) could be exploited by an Arizona lineup that's averaged 4.6 runs against San Diego this season.

Brandon Pfaadt takes the mound for Arizona with a disappointing 5.11 ERA this season. He was hammered in his last outing, giving up seven runs in just 4.2 innings against Detroit. While he's had some success against San Diego, his overall inconsistency makes him vulnerable.

The historical data supports a high-scoring game as well, with the over hitting in 11 of the last 16 meetings between these teams. Arizona has scored 29 runs in their last six home games, showing they can still produce offensively at Chase Field despite their disappointing season.