Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, Odds, MLB Picks 8/4/2025

The Philadelphia Phillies (-196) look to leverage their home-field advantage at Citizens Bank Park when they face the struggling Baltimore Orioles (+162) in Monday's interleague showdown.

Jesus Luzardo takes the mound for the playoff-contending Phillies (61-47) against Baltimore's Brandon Young, who enters with a concerning 6.71 career ERA as the Orioles (50-59) continue their disappointing season.

Philadelphia's potent offense (4.67 runs per game) should have opportunities against an Orioles pitching staff that ranks 27th in MLB with a 4.89 team ERA.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles preview

The surging Phillies host the struggling Orioles at Citizens Bank Park with Philadelphia's dominant home record set to be tested against Baltimore's underperforming lineup.

Jesus Luzardo takes the mound for the Phillies looking to improve on his career 35-39 record, while the Orioles counter with Brandon Young who's still searching for his first major league win after an 0-5 start to his career.

Philadelphia's offense has been clicking at 4.67 runs per game (9th in MLB) behind their solid .327 on-base percentage, giving them a significant edge over Baltimore's pitching staff that ranks near the bottom of the league with a 4.89 ERA.

The Phillies' bullpen has converted saves at a higher rate than Baltimore's relievers, who despite ranking 2nd in holds have blown 14 of 40 save opportunities this season.

Citizens Bank Park could prove challenging for Young, who's allowed 11.4 hits per nine innings in his brief career and now faces a Phillies lineup that's launched 126 homers this season.

Key stats

1

The Phillies sit in 4th place in the National League with a 63-48 record (.568 winning percentage), making them a consistent performer against the spread.

2

Philadelphia has maintained solid offensive production with 516 runs scored while limiting opponents to 448 runs, giving them a positive run differential of +68.

3

The Orioles are struggling in the AL East, sitting in last place with a 51-61 record (.455 winning percentage) and have dropped 3 of their last 5 games.

4

Baltimore has allowed 558 runs while scoring 489, resulting in a concerning -69 run differential that often translates to trouble in close games.

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