The Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves meet for game four of their rare five-game series at Truist Park on Saturday night, with Miami holding a 2-1 series edge and fighting to stay within six games of a Wild Card spot.
Sandy Alcantara takes the mound for the Marlins despite his 6.44 ERA, while Atlanta counters with recently-acquired Erick Fedde, who brings a concerning 3-12 record and 5.32 ERA to his third start in a Braves uniform.
With Miami's playoff hopes hanging in the balance and Atlanta sitting 15 games out of Wild Card contention, this matchup could define the Marlins' postseason push against a Braves team that managed just two hits in Friday's loss.
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins prediction: who will win?
For today's Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins matchup, our predictive model gives the Marlins a 80% chance of defeating the Braves.
Atlanta Braves: 20% win probability
- Worst record in NL East at 50-67 (.427 winning percentage)
- Struggling offense with only 492 runs scored in 117 games
- Poor recent form with inconsistent WWLWL pattern over last 5 games
Miami Marlins: 80% win probability
- Better overall record and winning percentage (.487 vs .427)
- Superior run differential with 504 runs scored vs 558 allowed compared to Braves' 492 scored vs 516 allowed
- More consistent recent performance in division matchups within NL East standings
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins preview
The Miami Marlins head to Truist Park sitting nine games clear of Atlanta in the NL East standings, but these division rivals are meeting for a rare five-game series that's already been marked by pitching struggles and offensive inconsistency.
Sandy Alcantara takes the mound for Miami despite posting a troubling 6.44 ERA this season, a far cry from the dominant form that once made him the Marlins' ace.
Atlanta counters with Erick Fedde, who arrives via trade from St. Louis carrying an equally concerning 5.32 ERA and a dismal 3-12 record that explains why the Cardinals were eager to deal him.
The Braves managed just two hits in Friday's loss, with Jurickson Profar's solo homer providing their only offensive spark against a Marlins team that's been surprisingly competitive this year.
Miami's Xavier Edwards continues to be a catalyst at the top of the order with his .303 average, while Kyle Stowers provides the power with 25 homers as the team's lone All-Star position player.
With both starters struggling and fatigue potentially setting in during this extended series, expect managers to dig deeper into their benches and rely heavily on bullpen arms that have been inconsistent for both clubs.
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