The Chicago Cubs will look to bounce back at Wrigley Field on Saturday when they host the Pittsburgh Pirates in game two of their series, after Jack Suwinski's walk-off homer stunned the home crowd in Friday's 3-2 Pirates victory.
Chicago (68-53) enters as heavy favourites despite the opening loss, backed by their potent offense that ranks top-six in MLB for runs per game and home runs, while Pittsburgh (52-71) continues searching for consistency with the league's worst offensive numbers.
With Shota Imanaga taking the mound for the Cubs against a Pirates lineup that has managed just 3.54 runs per game this season, Chicago will aim to leverage their clear talent advantage and get back on track in front of their home supporters.
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates prediction: who will win?
For today's Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates matchup, our predictive model gives the Cubs a 71.5% chance of defeating the Pirates.
Chicago Cubs: 71.5% win probability
- Strong offensive production (610 runs scored ranks 3rd in NL)
- Solid run differential (+116, significantly better than Pirates' -86)
- Competitive recent form with balanced wins in last 5 games (WLLWL)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 28.5% win probability
- Poor overall record at 52-72 (.419 winning percentage)
- Struggling offense with just 436 runs scored (lowest in NL Central)
- Terrible run differential of -86 (522 runs allowed vs 436 scored)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates pulled off a stunning walk-off victory in Friday's series opener at Wrigley Field, with Jack Suwinski's dramatic homer snapping a five-game losing streak and giving the basement-dwelling Pirates a rare moment of joy in what's been a brutal season.
Saturday's rematch presents a stark contrast in offensive firepower, with Chicago's lineup averaging 5.0 runs per game while Pittsburgh sits dead last in MLB at just 3.54 runs per contest.
The Cubs will turn to left-hander Shota Imanaga, who completely shut down these same Pirates back in April with five scoreless innings in a 9-0 rout, while Pittsburgh counters with Michael Burrows looking to build on his solid outing against Chicago earlier this season.
Chicago's potent offense features a three-headed monster in Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki (27 homers each) plus Michael Busch (24), giving them multiple ways to exploit Pittsburgh's pitching staff.
The Pirates' road struggles continue to plague them with an abysmal 18-42 record away from PNC Park, though their respectable pitching staff has kept games competitive despite the offensive drought.
History favors defensive battles between these clubs, with the under hitting in five straight head-to-head meetings as both teams have shown an ability to keep runs off the board in this matchup.
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