The Cleveland Guardians (63-60) head to Chase Field on Tuesday night looking to bounce back from a disappointing weekend sweep by Atlanta, while the Arizona Diamondbacks (60-65) aim to build on their strong recent offensive form despite a troubling series loss to Colorado.
Cleveland's Tanner Bibee takes the mound carrying a concerning trend of allowing four or more runs in seven of his last eight starts, facing an Arizona lineup that's been red-hot with a .278/.343/.489 slash line over the past 10 days.
With the Guardians sitting 3.5 games behind the final AL wild card spot and Arizona's Eduardo Rodriguez historically dominant against Cleveland (7-0, 2.51 ERA in nine career starts), Tuesday's matchup could prove pivotal for both teams' postseason hopes.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians matchup, our predictive model gives the D-backs a 75% chance of defeating the Guardians.
Arizona Diamondbacks: 75% win probability
- Superior offensive production (619 runs scored vs Cleveland's 491)
- Home field advantage with stronger recent form (LLLLW vs WLLLW)
- Better run differential despite similar records (619-616 vs 491-523)
Cleveland Guardians: 25% win probability
- Weakest offense in their division (491 runs scored, lowest among AL Central teams)
- Struggling on the road against teams with better offensive output
- Recent inconsistency with three losses in last five games (WLLLW)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians preview
The Cleveland Guardians arrive in Phoenix desperately needing to snap out of their recent funk after getting swept by Atlanta over the weekend, managing just five runs across three games while their wild card hopes took a serious hit.
Tanner Bibee gets the ball for Cleveland, but the right-hander has been struggling mightily lately, surrendering four or more runs in seven of his last eight starts - not exactly what you want when facing an Arizona offense that's been red-hot with a .278 average and 130 wRC+ over the past 10 days.
The Diamondbacks counter with Eduardo Rodriguez, who owns Cleveland historically with a 7-0 record and 2.51 ERA in nine career starts against them, though his 5.40 ERA this season suggests he's far from the pitcher who once dominated this matchup.
Arizona stumbled against Colorado last week, losing a series to baseball's worst team despite their offensive surge, while Cleveland's bullpen has actually been solid during their rough stretch with a 3.79 ERA over 38 innings.
The key storyline here is whether Bibee can find his form against a Diamondbacks lineup that has feasted on right-handed pitching lately, posting an .804 OPS against righties in recent action.
With both teams sitting below .500 and fighting for relevance in what's been a disappointing season, this series feels like a measuring stick for which club can salvage something meaningful from the final weeks.
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