The Baltimore Orioles (57-67) face an uphill battle at Fenway Park on Tuesday as they look to extend their recent hot streak against a Boston Red Sox squad (68-57) clinging to the top wild card spot in the American League.
Baltimore has won four of their last five games despite dealing with significant roster changes after trading away key offensive pieces at the deadline, while Boston's playoff hopes rest on maintaining their edge over AL wild card contenders.
With Walker Buehler's recent struggles on the mound for the Red Sox and the Orioles missing several key players due to injury, this AL East matchup could hinge on which team's depth proves more reliable in a crucial August series.
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles matchup, our predictive model gives the Red Sox a 52.33% chance of defeating the Orioles.
Boston Red Sox: 52.33% win probability
- Superior offensive production averaging 4.99 runs per game (629 runs in 126 games)
- Better recent form with 3 wins in last 5 games compared to Orioles' inconsistent stretch
- Home field advantage at Fenway Park where they've maintained a .540 winning percentage
Baltimore Orioles: 47.67% win probability
- Worst run differential in AL East allowing 4.86 runs per game (608 runs allowed in 125 games)
- Poor road performance as part of their .464 overall record, 9 games below .500
- Inconsistent recent form going 3-2 in last 5 but struggling with defensive lapses
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles preview
The Red Sox welcome Baltimore to Fenway Park sitting five games back in the AL East hunt, while the Orioles find themselves 15.5 games behind and sellers at the deadline after trading away key offensive pieces.
Boston's offense has been clicking all season, ranking fourth in runs scored with strong contributions from Trevor Story (19 homers, 79 RBIs) and Jarren Duran, though they'll miss injured slugger Wilyer Abreu who leads the team with 22 long balls.
The Orioles have found some life lately, winning four of their last five games despite a depleted roster, with Jordan Westburg and Jackson Holliday each contributing 15 homers to keep Baltimore competitive.
On the mound, Walker Buehler takes the ball for Boston but has struggled with a 5.43 ERA this season, getting roughed up for four runs in his last outing against Houston.
Baltimore counters with Tomoyuki Sugano, who has been solid in his recent starts with just two earned runs allowed over his last 12.1 innings pitched.
Both teams are dealing with significant injury lists, but the Red Sox hold clear advantages both at the plate and on the mound as they look to keep pace in the wild card race.
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