The San Diego Padres host the San Francisco Giants at Petco Park on Tuesday night in a crucial NL West showdown where the Padres (-220) look to extend their dominance over a Giants squad that snapped a seven-game losing streak but still sits six games out of wild-card contention.
All eyes will be on Giants rookie Kai-Wei Teng, who was torched for seven runs in just 1.2 innings against these same Padres last week, as he faces a San Diego offense that has won seven of nine meetings this season.
With Nick Pivetta taking the hill for the Padres after limiting the Giants to one run over 6.2 innings in that recent blowout, this matchup could determine whether San Francisco can salvage anything from this critical four-game series.
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants prediction: who will win?
For tonight's San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants matchup, our predictive model gives the Padres a 71% chance of defeating the Giants.
San Diego Padres: 71% win probability
- Superior run differential with +44 compared to Giants' -2 (515 runs scored, 471 allowed vs 505 scored, 507 allowed)
- Better recent form showing resilience after tough stretch (LLLWW vs WLLLL)
- Stronger divisional position at 2nd place in NL West with .556 winning percentage
San Francisco Giants: 29% win probability
- Poor recent form with four losses in last five games (WLLLL)
- Negative momentum in competitive NL West, sitting 3rd despite even record
- Struggling offense averaging just 4.07 runs per game compared to Padres' 4.15 runs per game
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants preview
The Giants desperately need a bounce-back performance after getting swept by these same Padres just last week in San Francisco, where they managed all of one run in their final meeting.
Rookie Kai-Wei Teng gets another shot at redemption after lasting just five outs in that disastrous 11-1 loss to San Diego, where he walked four batters and couldn't record a single strikeout.
Nick Pivetta has been San Diego's most reliable starter this season with his 2.87 ERA, and he's already dominated the Giants twice this year while allowing just one earned run across 6.2 innings in their last matchup.
San Francisco broke their seven-game losing streak against Tampa Bay on Sunday, but they're still struggling mightily at the plate with a .243 average this month and sitting six games out of wild card contention.
The Padres enter as heavy favorites after taking seven of nine from the Giants this season, though they're smarting from a weekend sweep by the Dodgers that cost them first place in the NL West.
With both teams' bullpens performing well lately, this game could hinge on whether Teng can avoid the early trouble that's plagued his brief major league career.
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