The Cincinnati Reds arrive at Chase Field on Friday night carrying playoff hopes and momentum, sitting just one game back of a wild card spot as they face an Arizona Diamondbacks squad that's desperately trying to stay in contention.
With Zack Littell making his fourth start since joining Cincinnati and posting a strong 3.06 ERA with his new club, the Reds will look to capitalize on Arizona's recent struggles behind starter Ryne Nelson, who has watched his team lose four straight games in his previous outings.
Both teams understand the stakes in this late-August showdown, as the Reds can potentially pull further ahead in the wild card race while the Diamondbacks need to start stringing together wins to close their 5.5-game deficit.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds matchup, our predictive model gives the Reds a 58% chance of defeating the Diamondbacks.
Arizona Diamondbacks: 42% win probability
- Poor recent form with three losses in last five games (WWLLL)
- Defensive struggles giving up 623 runs this season
- Below .500 record at 62-66 puts them 4 games under break-even
Cincinnati Reds: 58% win probability
- Superior record at 67-61 (.523) compared to Arizona's 62-66 (.484)
- Stronger defensive unit allowing 528 runs against vs Arizona's 623
- Better divisional positioning sitting 3rd in NL Central vs Arizona's 3rd in NL West
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Diamondbacks vs. Reds Odds
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds preview
The Reds arrive in the desert needing every win they can get, sitting just one game behind the Mets for that precious final wild card spot with time running short.
Arizona's playoff hopes are fading fast at 5.5 games back, but they've shown some fight recently with back-to-back wins over Cleveland after dropping four straight.
Zack Littell brings his solid 3.06 ERA since joining Cincinnati from Tampa Bay to the mound, while Ryne Nelson counters with a strong 2.20 home ERA that's kept the Diamondbacks competitive at Chase Field.
The pitching matchup favors a lower-scoring affair, with both starters showing quality form lately despite Nelson's recent struggles getting run support from his offense.
Cincinnati's offense has been quietly effective since the All-Star break, hitting .253 in that span, while Arizona's power threat remains real with the fifth-most home runs in baseball.
This series opener could set the tone for both teams' final month push, with the Reds desperately needing road wins and the Diamondbacks looking to play spoiler on home turf.
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