The Colorado Rockies visit PNC Park on Friday night facing a Pittsburgh Pirates team that should capitalize on home field against one of baseball's most porous pitching staffs.
Colorado enters with a dismal 37-90 record and baseball's worst team ERA at 5.96, while Pittsburgh's significantly better 4.02 staff ERA gives them clear value as -182 moneyline favorites.
With Antonio Senzatela's career 5.19 ERA opposing Braxton Ashcraft's promising 3.06 mark, this matchup presents a clear contrast in pitching quality that bettors should consider.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies matchup, our predictive model gives the Pirates a 67.5% chance of defeating the Rockies.
Pittsburgh Pirates: 67.5% win probability
- Home field advantage with solid defensive foundation (449 runs allowed vs 536 scored shows controlled games)
- Recent uptick in form with mixed results but competitive play (54-74 record still shows fight in tough division)
- Playing against league's worst team creates opportunity for momentum swing (facing 37-91 Colorado)
Colorado Rockies: 32.5% win probability
- Historically bad season with worst record in baseball (37-91, .289 winning percentage)
- Defensive struggles with massive run differential (-332 runs, 490 scored vs 822 allowed)
- Road performance likely poor given overall team struggles (worst team in NL West by significant margin)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Pirates vs. Rockies Odds
These are the best MLB odds we found across major U.S. sportsbooks for this game.
Odds are based on the latest data at publication and are subject to real-time updates.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates welcome the Colorado Rockies to PNC Park on Friday night in what shapes up as a battle between two clubs looking to salvage something from disappointing campaigns.
Colorado enters this series with the worst record in baseball at 37-90, and their pitching staff has been absolutely dreadful, posting a 5.96 team ERA that ranks dead last in MLB while surrendering nearly 11 hits per nine innings.
Antonio Senzatela takes the ball for the Rockies despite carrying a career 5.19 ERA and having allowed 950 hits across 800 innings of work.
Pittsburgh counters with promising young right-hander Braxton Ashcraft, who has shown flashes of brilliance in limited action with a 3.06 ERA and solid 2.85 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 41 career frames.
While neither offense has been prolific this season, the Pirates hold a clear pitching advantage with their 4.02 staff ERA ranking 14th in the majors compared to Colorado's basement-dwelling numbers.
The Rockies bullpen has been particularly unreliable, converting just 54.3% of save opportunities while the Pirates have managed a slightly better 55.3% save rate despite their own struggles.
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