The Cincinnati Reds bring their wild card chase to Chase Field on Saturday, sitting just half a game behind the final playoff spot as they face an Arizona Diamondbacks team that has found new life since the trade deadline.
All eyes will be on Andrew Abbott, who has been brilliant with a 2.28 ERA this season, as he looks to continue Cincinnati's push against Nabil Crismatt making just his second start after an impressive season debut.
With the Reds leading the season series 3-0 but Arizona riding a hot streak at home, this matchup could prove pivotal in shaping both teams' final month narratives.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds matchup, our predictive model gives the Diamondbacks a 70% chance of defeating the Reds.
Arizona Diamondbacks: 70% win probability
- Home field advantage with solid offensive production (628 runs scored ranks 9th)
- Better overall record momentum despite recent struggles (62-66 vs 67-61)
- Stronger run differential helps in close games (-5 vs +53 for Cincinnati)
Cincinnati Reds: 30% win probability
- Road struggles evident in recent form (LWWWL with losses away from home)
- Inconsistent offense compared to Arizona (581 runs vs 628 for Diamondbacks)
- Playing in tough road environment against team desperate for wins
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Diamondbacks vs. Reds Odds
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds preview
The Reds are scrapping for their playoff lives at 67-61, sitting just half a game behind the Mets for the final wild card spot with a crucial series against New York looming next month.
Andrew Abbott takes the ball for Cincinnati coming off seven scoreless frames against Milwaukee, and he's been dominant this season with a 2.28 ERA and 1.08 WHIP that has him looking like their ace.
Arizona counters with Nabil Crismatt making just his second start of the year after spending most of his career in relief—he was sharp in his season debut, allowing one run over five innings against Colorado.
The Diamondbacks have found some life at Chase Field lately, winning five of their last six home games despite trading away key pieces at the deadline.
Cincinnati's offense has been inconsistent on the road where they're 31-32, while shortstop Elly De La Cruz has cooled off significantly with a .510 OPS this month.
Arizona's Ketel Marte continues his stellar campaign with 23 homers and a .941 OPS, providing the spark for a lineup that's averaged five runs per game over their last 10 contests.
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