The Pittsburgh Pirates host the struggling Colorado Rockies on Saturday night at PNC Park, with both basement dwellers looking to salvage something from disappointing seasons.
Pittsburgh enters with solid home form at 36-30 despite sitting last in the NL Central, while Colorado fights to avoid matching the modern MLB record for losses with a dismal 37-90 mark.
Kyle Freeland returns from a blister injury to face Mike Burrows in what should be a pitcher-friendly matchup between two teams desperate for momentum.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies matchup, our predictive model gives the Pirates a 75% chance of defeating the Rockies.
Pittsburgh Pirates: 75% win probability
- Superior recent form with 2-3 record in last 5 games compared to Colorado's struggles (Recent form: WWLWL vs LLWLW)
- Significantly better defensive foundation, allowing 536 runs compared to Colorado's league-worst 831 runs allowed
- Home field advantage at PNC Park where they've been more competitive this season
Colorado Rockies: 25% win probability
- Worst record in baseball at 37-92 (.287 winning percentage) showing systemic issues throughout the roster
- Historically bad pitching staff that has surrendered 831 runs, 162 more than any other team in the league
- Road struggles evident in their 2-3 recent form (LLWLW) with inconsistent offensive production away from Coors Field
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Pirates vs. Rockies Odds
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies preview
Two teams scraping the bottom of their respective divisions meet at PNC Park, with the Pirates (54-74) hosting the struggling Rockies (37-90) who are dangerously close to matching the White Sox's modern record of 124 losses.
Colorado enters on something resembling momentum after taking three of five games, including a series split with the first-place Dodgers, but their road woes tell a different story with a putrid .212 batting average away from Coors Field.
The Pirates have been a different beast at home this season, sitting 36-30 at PNC Park despite being 20 games under .500 overall, and they just took two of three from the AL East-leading Blue Jays.
Saturday's pitching matchup features Kyle Freeland (3-12, 5.16 ERA) returning from a blister injury that cut short his last start, facing Mike Burrows (1-4, 4.46 ERA) who has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched this season.
Pittsburgh's offensive struggles continue as they rank dead last in runs per game at 3.52, but they've shown they can manufacture just enough offense at home to stay competitive.
With both bullpens ranking among the worst in save percentage, this could turn into a battle of which starter can eat the most innings before handing things over to shaky relief corps.
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