The Cincinnati Reds bring their wild card hopes to Chase Field on Sunday, trailing the playoff picture by just 1.5 games as they face the Arizona Diamondbacks in what could be a season-defining series finale.
Brady Singer takes the mound for Cincinnati riding a stellar five-start stretch with a 1.86 ERA, while Arizona counters with Zac Gallen, who has struggled with a 5.28 ERA this season but historically matches up well against the Reds.
With Cincinnati owning recent dominance in this matchup after sweeping Arizona in June and the D-backs playing spoiler at home, this National League clash carries playoff implications that could shift the wild card race.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds matchup, our predictive model gives the Reds a 52% chance of defeating the Diamondbacks.
Arizona Diamondbacks: 48% win probability
- Defensive struggles allowing 629 runs, 85 more than Cincinnati's 544
- Inconsistent recent performance despite 4-1 record in last 5, showing vulnerability
- Lower winning percentage at .492 compared to Cincinnati's .515 mark
Cincinnati Reds: 52% win probability
- Superior divisional record positioning (3rd in NL Central vs 3rd in NL West with better win percentage at .515)
- Better run differential with 587 runs scored against 544 allowed compared to Arizona's 644-629 split
- Recent momentum with improved form including wins in 2 of last 5 games
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Diamondbacks vs. Reds Odds
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds preview
The Reds roll into Chase Field carrying the weight of wild card hopes, sitting just 1.5 games behind the final playoff spot after a heartbreaking 11-inning loss in Friday's series opener.
Cincinnati's Brady Singer has been quietly dominant over his last five starts, posting a sparkling 1.86 ERA while the Reds have won four of those outings, giving them real momentum in their playoff push.
Arizona counters with Zac Gallen, who's endured a rough 2025 campaign with a 5.28 ERA despite flashes of his former brilliance, including a solid August that's seen his numbers trend upward.
The Diamondbacks swept these same Reds back in June at Great American Ball Park, but Cincinnati got to Gallen for four runs in that series finale, suggesting they've figured out his approach.
With Arizona effectively playing spoiler at 5.5 games back, this becomes a fascinating clash between Singer's recent surge and Gallen's quest to rediscover the form that made him an ace just two seasons ago.
The Reds' bullpen has been stellar lately with a 2.48 ERA over their last 10 games, which could prove crucial in what shapes up as a tight, low-scoring affair in the desert.
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