The Boston Red Sox welcome the Cleveland Guardians to Fenway Park on Monday with both teams heading in opposite directions as September begins.
Boston enters with a solid 75-60 record and potent offense averaging 4.95 runs per game, while Cleveland sits at .500 (66-66) with offensive struggles that have them ranked 28th in runs scored.
With the Red Sox favoured at -130 behind Brayan Bello and the Guardians seeking to build momentum as road underdogs at +110, this American League clash could prove pivotal for both clubs' postseason aspirations.
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians prediction: who will win?
For today's Red Sox vs Guardians matchup, our predictive model gives the Guardians a 59% chance of defeating the Red Sox.
Boston Red Sox: 41% win probability
- Inconsistent recent play going 2-3 in last five games (WLLWW)
- Struggling defensively with 576 runs allowed in 138 games
- Poor run differential at +102 despite offensive production
Cleveland Guardians: 59% win probability
- Strong recent momentum with five-game winning streak (LWWWW form)
- Better run differential at -55 compared to Red Sox -102
- Impressive pitching staff allowing just 574 runs in 135 games
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Red Sox vs. Guardians Odds
These are the best MLB odds we found across major U.S. sportsbooks for this game.
Odds are based on the latest data at publication and are subject to real-time updates.
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Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians preview
The Red Sox return to Fenway looking to solidify their playoff positioning against a Guardians team that's been treading water at .500 all season.
Boston's offense has been clicking at a top-five rate with 4.95 runs per game, while Cleveland struggles to generate consistent scoring, ranking 28th in baseball with just 3.9 runs per contest.
Brayan Bello takes the hill for the Red Sox with a respectable 4.04 ERA, facing off against Slade Cecconi, who's battled command issues all year with a 5.24 ERA and concerning 1.306 WHIP.
Cleveland's bullpen has been a bright spot with solid hold numbers, but their 67.9% save percentage suggests late-game situations could favor Boston's more reliable lineup.
The Guardians need to find ways to manufacture runs against a Red Sox pitching staff that's been middle-of-the-pack but effective at limiting big innings.
With both teams' defensive metrics ranking near the bottom of MLB, expect plenty of action and potential for crooked numbers on the scoreboard.
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