The Toronto Blue Jays travel to Great American Ball Park on Monday as -132 road favorites against the Cincinnati Reds in a late-season clash with playoff implications.
Toronto's superior offensive firepower (5.0 runs per game, 4th in MLB) faces off against Cincinnati's improved pitching staff, who rank 14th in ERA at 3.85.
With Chris Bassitt taking the mound for the Blue Jays against Hunter Greene, both teams need wins as they push toward October with Toronto sitting 10 games ahead at 78-56.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays prediction: who will win?
For today's Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays matchup, our predictive model gives the Reds a 63% chance of defeating the Blue Jays.
Cincinnati Reds: 63% win probability
- Home field advantage with strong recent form (69-68 record at .504 winning percentage)
- Better run differential management (611 runs scored vs 578 runs allowed for +33)
- Solid offensive production averaging 4.46 runs per game (611 runs in 137 games)
Toronto Blue Jays: 37% win probability
- Poor road performance as division leaders often struggle away from home
- Defensive struggles allowing 4.52 runs per game (619 runs allowed in 137 games)
- Recent form showing inconsistency with WLLWL pattern over last five games
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Reds vs. Blue Jays Odds
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays preview
The Blue Jays roll into Cincinnati with playoff hopes hanging in the balance, carrying a solid 78-56 record that puts them in the thick of the postseason race. Chris Bassitt takes the mound for Toronto with a respectable 3.66 ERA and over 1,100 career strikeouts, facing a Reds lineup that strikes out plenty but has struggled to generate consistent offense this season. Hunter Greene counters for Cincinnati with his power arm, though his 23-29 career record reflects some inconsistency that could prove costly in this matchup. The Reds have been tough at home and boast a solid bullpen that ranks seventh in limiting hits, but their .246 team batting average leaves little margin for error against Toronto's veteran starter. With both teams sitting near .500 in their recent form, this Labour Day clash could hinge on which offense can break through first. The Blue Jays need every win they can get as September arrives, while the Reds are playing spoiler with nothing to lose at Great American Ball Park.
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