Monday's MLB slate brings plus-money value in the form of struggling road favorites and pitchers returning from injury who can't find their command.
We're backing underdog moneylines where superior home form meets fading visiting starters, plus targeting an Over play at Coors Field where Chase Dollander's 9.88 home ERA creates massive upside.
From the Tigers at home against Sean Manaea's recent 7.13 ERA to the Giants-Rockies total in hitter-friendly Denver, these expert picks target the day's sharpest edges with supporting data and clear value.
MLB best bets
| Game | Time | Pick |
|---|---|---|
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Tigers vs. Mets betting tips
The Tigers are getting solid value at home after taking a winning series against Kansas City, while the Mets just dropped a series to Miami.
Sean Manaea has been brutal in August with a 7.13 ERA and the Mets are just 2-7 when he starts.
Charlie Morton has given up 2 or fewer runs in 3 of his 5 starts since joining Detroit, showing better form than Manaea.
Detroit's home lineup is batting .262 with a strong 44-25 record at their ballpark.
The Tigers' recent form at home gives them the edge over a Mets team that struggles away from home at 28-37.
Reds vs. Blue Jays betting tips
The Blue Jays are getting plus money despite being the better overall team, creating solid value in this spot.
Hunter Greene is the superior pitcher, but Toronto strikes out less than any team in the league, neutralizing his biggest weapon.
Chris Bassitt will likely give up 2-3 runs over 5 innings, which gives Toronto's offense a legitimate chance to compete.
Cincinnati's bullpen has been shaky and could be the difference late in games like this.
The Blue Jays have more talent across the roster and this line reflects Greene's presence more than the actual team quality.
Cubs vs. Braves betting tips
Both offenses rank in the top half of MLB in runs per game, on-base percentage, OPS and home runs, setting up a high-scoring affair.
Spencer Strider hasn't returned to his 2023 form with a 4.95 ERA and poor underlying metrics including bottom-tier exit velocity allowed.
Colin Rea has a 4.23 ERA with analytics suggesting more trouble ahead, ranking poorly in xERA and barrel rate.
There have been 8 or more runs in 5 of Rea's last 7 starts, showing a clear pattern of high-scoring games.
Both pitchers have struggled to generate strikeouts recently, meaning more balls will be put in play by quality offenses.
Rockies vs. Giants betting tips
The Giants offense has been on fire lately, scoring 12 or more runs in three of their last five games.
Chase Dollander has been awful for Colorado with a 6.55 ERA overall and a dismal 9.88 ERA at Coors Field specifically.
Dollander is 0-4 with a 7.18 ERA over his last seven starts, making him a prime target for San Francisco's hot bats.
Coors Field's altitude and dimensions heavily favor offense, especially with a struggling pitcher like Dollander on the mound.
The Over has hit in 4 of the Giants' last 5 games and 4 of 6 recent Rockies home games, showing a clear trend.
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