The San Diego Padres host the struggling Baltimore Orioles at Petco Park on Tuesday night with playoff implications on the line, as the 76-61 Padres look to extend their postseason push against a 61-75 Orioles squad that's fading fast.
Yu Darvish takes the mound for San Diego as the heavy -152 favorite, facing Tyler Wells in what should be a pitcher-friendly matchup given the Padres' elite pitching staff that ranks second in MLB with just 3.90 runs allowed per game.
With Baltimore's offense averaging just 4.4 runs per contest and San Diego's home-field advantage at pitcher-friendly Petco Park, the total sits at a modest 8 runs in this interleague clash.
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles prediction: who will win?
For tonight's San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles matchup, our predictive model gives the Padres a 68.5% chance of defeating the Orioles.
San Diego Padres: 68.5% win probability
- Strong winning percentage at .551 with 76 wins in 138 games
- Excellent run differential with 585 runs scored vs just 531 allowed
- Solid divisional standing as second place in competitive NL West
Baltimore Orioles: 31.5% win probability
- Poor record at 62-76 (.449 winning percentage) ranking 14th in AL
- Negative run differential allowing 686 runs while scoring only 599
- Inconsistent recent form going 2-3 in last five games (WLWLL)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Padres vs. Orioles Odds
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San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles preview
The Orioles head to Petco Park carrying the weight of a disappointing season, sitting 14 games behind .500 at 61-75 while the Padres continue their push for October at 76-61.
Baltimore's pitching woes tell the story of their struggles—they rank 25th in MLB with a 4.69 ERA and have surrendered 186 home runs, making life difficult in a season that's slipped away.
Tyler Wells takes the mound for the O's with a career 4.07 ERA, facing the challenge of containing a Padres offense that's managed 119 homers despite striking out nearly 1,000 times.
Yu Darvish brings his veteran savvy to the hill for San Diego, boasting a stellar 3.63 career ERA and over 2,000 strikeouts in his decorated tenure.
The Padres' defensive efficiency ranks second in baseball at 72.0%, a stark contrast to Baltimore's 28th-ranked mark that has cost them dearly this season.
With San Diego's bullpen holding a league-best 74.1% save percentage and the Orioles managing just 63.3%, late-game situations could prove decisive in this West Coast showdown.
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