The Boston Red Sox look to extend their strong home form when they welcome the Cleveland Guardians to Fenway Park on Wednesday night, with Boston entering as heavy -196 moneyline favourites despite Cleveland's respectable .500 record.
This matchup features two clubs heading in opposite directions - the Red Sox (77-62) sitting comfortably in playoff position while averaging nearly five runs per game, compared to the struggling Guardians (68-68) who rank 28th in MLB with just 3.9 runs scored per contest.
With Logan Allen taking the mound for Cleveland against Kyle Harrison for Boston, the total sits at 9 runs as both pitchers carry ERAs north of 4.50 heading into this crucial September clash.
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians matchup, our predictive model gives the Red Sox a 65.5% chance of defeating the Guardians.
Boston Red Sox: 65.5% win probability
- Superior offensive production (695 runs scored vs Cleveland's 530)
- Better overall record and winning percentage (.557 vs .496)
- Strong recent momentum with WWWLL form including back-to-back wins
Cleveland Guardians: 34.5% win probability
- Struggling offense ranks among AL's worst (530 runs in 137 games)
- Poor recent form with LLLWW showing three straight losses before recent wins
- Below .500 record at 68-69 despite fewer games played than division rivals
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Red Sox vs. Guardians Odds
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Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians preview
The Red Sox enter this midweek clash sitting nine games above .500 and firmly in playoff contention, while the Guardians find themselves treading water at the break-even mark with time running short to make a move.
Boston's offense has been clicking at a much higher level, averaging nearly a full run more per game (4.92) compared to Cleveland's struggling attack that ranks 28th in MLB at just 3.9 runs per contest.
Logan Allen takes the mound for Cleveland carrying a 4.57 ERA and concerning peripherals, including nearly 10 hits allowed per nine innings pitched throughout his career.
The Red Sox counter with Kyle Harrison, who sports an identical 4.50 ERA but has shown better control with a superior strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.87.
Cleveland's bullpen has been one of the few bright spots this season, ranking third in holds with 92, though their 68.4% save percentage still leaves room for improvement in crucial moments.
With Fenway's cozy confines and both starters showing vulnerability to the long ball, this matchup could hinge on which offense capitalizes first against pitchers who've surrendered their share of home runs this season.
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