The Los Angeles Dodgers head to Pittsburgh riding a strong 78-59 record and carrying World Series aspirations, but the Pirates present an intriguing underdog spot at PNC Park on Wednesday night.
With Shohei Ohtani taking the mound for LA against young Braxton Ashcraft, this matchup features a clear talent disparity that oddsmakers have reflected in the Dodgers' -196 moneyline price.
Pittsburgh's 61-77 record tells only part of the story, as their solid 8th-ranked ERA suggests they can keep games competitive despite offensive struggles that rank dead last in MLB with just 3.62 runs per game.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers matchup, our predictive model gives the Pirates a 57.5% chance of defeating the Dodgers.
Pittsburgh Pirates: 57.5% win probability
- Home field advantage with solid recent form (WLWWL shows ability to bounce back)
- Improved offensive output late in season (509 runs scored with better efficiency than expected)
- Strong defensive fundamentals (569 runs allowed ranks among NL's better marks)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 42.5% win probability
- Road struggles evident in recent form (LWLLW shows inconsistency away from home)
- Pitching staff has allowed significant run production (608 runs against despite strong record)
- Late-season fatigue factor with heavy workload (78-60 record suggests potential wear)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Pirates vs. Dodgers Odds
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers preview
The Dodgers head to PNC Park sitting comfortably in playoff position at 78-59, while the Pirates are playing out the string at 61-77 in what's been another disappointing season in Pittsburgh.
Shohei Ohtani takes the mound for Los Angeles with a stellar 3.09 career ERA and 652 strikeouts across 513 innings, looking to help the Dodgers maintain their strong road form against a Pirates lineup that ranks dead last in runs per game at 3.62.
Pittsburgh counters with rookie Braxton Ashcraft, who's shown promise with a 2.59 ERA in limited action, but faces a Dodgers offense that's third in baseball with 5.1 runs per game and 202 home runs.
The Pirates' pitching staff has actually been solid this year, ranking eighth in team ERA at 3.89 and allowing the eighth-fewest hits in the majors, but their anemic offense continues to let down decent work from the mound.
Los Angeles enters with some bullpen concerns after blowing 22 of 59 save opportunities this season, which could keep this game interesting if Pittsburgh can scratch across some early runs.
With the Dodgers needing every win to secure playoff seeding and the Pirates playing for pride in front of their home crowd, Wednesday's matchup sets up as a classic example of postseason-bound talent meeting spoiler potential.
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