The Los Angeles Dodgers head to Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Friday night as road favourites against the Baltimore Orioles, with Tyler Glasnow set to duel Dean Kremer in what promises to be a pivotal late-season clash.
Los Angeles enters with a 78-61 record and playoff aspirations, while Baltimore (64-76) looks to play spoiler despite their disappointing campaign falling short of expectations.
The betting market reflects the talent gap, with the Dodgers opening as -182 moneyline favourites and carrying a 60% win probability according to advanced simulation models.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers matchup, our predictive model gives the Dodgers a 67.5% chance of defeating the Orioles.
Baltimore Orioles: 32.5% win probability
- Poor run prevention allowing 693 runs, fifth-worst in their division
- Bottom-tier record in AL East at 64-76, sitting last in the division
- Inconsistent recent form going 3-2 in last five games while fighting for relevance
Los Angeles Dodgers: 67.5% win probability
- Superior run production with 710 runs scored compared to Baltimore's 612
- Better defensive efficiency allowing 616 runs against Baltimore's 693
- Stronger overall record at 78-62 (.557) versus Baltimore's struggling 64-76 (.457)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Orioles vs. Dodgers Odds
These are the best MLB odds we found across major U.S. sportsbooks for this game.
Odds are based on the latest data at publication and are subject to real-time updates.
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers preview
The Dodgers roll into Baltimore riding a solid 78-61 record and looking to keep pace in the National League playoff race, while the Orioles sit 14 games back at 64-76 and already focusing on next season.
Tyler Glasnow takes the mound for Los Angeles with a respectable 3.78 ERA, facing Dean Kremer who's struggled this year with a 4.34 ERA for Baltimore.
The offensive numbers tell the story here - LA ranks third in the majors with 5.1 runs per game compared to Baltimore's 4.37, and the Dodgers have blasted 204 home runs to the Orioles' 170.
Baltimore's pitching staff has been particularly vulnerable, ranking 25th in runs allowed per game at 5.05 and surrendering 190 long balls this season.
The Orioles will need to capitalize on their home field advantage at Camden Yards, where they've historically played better, but they're facing a Dodgers squad that's been one of baseball's most consistent offensive units all year.
With both teams' bullpens showing some inconsistency - the Dodgers have blown 22 saves while Baltimore has 18 blown saves in fewer opportunities - this could come down to which starter can give their team length and keep the game close early.
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