The New York Mets (75-65) head to Great American Ball Park on Friday night riding the momentum of a solid season, but face a Cincinnati Reds (70-70) squad desperate to push above .500 with home field advantage.
With David Peterson taking the mound for New York against Andrew Abbott for Cincinnati, both teams bring contrasting strengths - the Mets' superior offensive firepower averaging 4.8 runs per game versus the Reds' impressive defensive efficiency ranking 8th in MLB.
Early betting action favors New York at -152 on the moneyline, but Cincinnati's strong home record and Abbott's solid 3.38 career ERA suggest this matchup could be closer than the odds indicate.
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets matchup, our predictive model gives the Mets a 64.5% chance of defeating the Reds.
Cincinnati Reds: 35.5% win probability
- Mediocre .500 record shows inconsistency (70-70 vs Mets' 75-65)
- Recent struggles with LLWWL form compared to Mets' LWWLL
- Weaker offensive output despite decent pitching (634 runs scored vs 607 allowed)
New York Mets: 64.5% win probability
- Superior offensive production (674 runs scored vs Reds' 634)
- Stronger divisional position (2nd in NL East at .536 vs Reds' 3rd in NL Central at .500)
- Better run differential (+69 compared to Reds' +27)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Reds vs. Mets Odds
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Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets preview
The Mets arrive in Cincinnati riding the momentum of their playoff push, sitting 10 games above .500 at 75-65 while the Reds find themselves at the crossroads of mediocrity at an even 70-70.
David Peterson takes the mound for New York with solid career numbers and a 3.91 FIP, facing Andrew Abbott who brings a respectable 3.38 ERA into this Great American Ball Park showdown.
New York's offense has been clicking lately, averaging 4.8 runs per game behind 193 home runs and a .330 team on-base percentage that ranks among the better units in the National League.
Cincinnati counters with a scrappy lineup that's struck out more than any team except seven others, though they've managed to stay competitive with timely hitting and decent pitching depth.
The bullpen battle could decide this one, with both teams sitting around 61% in save conversion rate but the Mets holding a slight edge in high-leverage situations.
Friday night baseball in Cincinnati always brings energy, and with the Reds needing every win to climb toward respectability, expect Great American Ball Park to provide the perfect backdrop for competitive September baseball.
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