The Miami Marlins host the Washington Nationals at loanDepot park Monday night in what shapes up as one of the most evenly matched contests of the season, with predictive models calling it a dead heat at 50-50.
Both teams enter the series finale looking to build momentum, as Miami (-145) holds a slight edge on the moneyline despite Washington's recent resilience on the road.
With starting pitchers Cade Cavalli and Janson Junk taking the mound, the total sits at 9 runs in a game that could swing on which bullpen holds up better in late innings.
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals matchup, our predictive model gives the Marlins a 75% chance of defeating the Nationals.
Miami Marlins: 75% win probability
- Home field advantage with solid defensive fundamentals (616 runs allowed vs Nationals' 773)
- Better overall record and winning percentage (.462 vs .408)
- Superior recent offensive production (616 runs scored vs Nationals' 601)
Washington Nationals: 25% win probability
- Worst run differential in baseball (601 runs scored, 773 allowed for -172)
- Poor road performance as evidenced by 58-84 overall record
- Defensive struggles allowing 773 runs, second-most in the league behind only Colorado
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Marlins vs. Nationals Odds
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Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals preview
The Marlins host the Nationals in a late-season matchup that pits two clubs headed in opposite directions, with Miami sitting nine games better at 65-75 despite their own struggles.
Washington's offense has been anemic all year, ranking 24th in runs per game at just 4.2, while their pitching staff owns baseball's second-worst ERA at 5.28.
Cade Cavalli gets the nod for the Nationals despite posting a bloated 6.22 ERA in limited action, facing Miami's Janson Junk who brings a 4.92 career mark to the mound.
The Marlins have been slightly more competent on both sides of the ball, ranking 18th in scoring and boasting a much more respectable 4.70 team ERA.
Miami's bullpen has been particularly unreliable with 20 blown saves this season, though Washington's relief corps has been even worse with a dismal 65.1% save percentage.
Both teams are essentially playing out the string at this point, but the Marlins should have enough at home to handle a Nationals squad that's been one of baseball's worst road teams.
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