The San Diego Padres host the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park on Sunday with the home side heavily favoured at -340 on the moneyline despite both clubs finishing disappointing campaigns.
German Marquez takes the mound for a Rockies squad that sits dead last in MLB with a woeful 40-107 record, facing off against Yu Darvish and a Padres team (80-67) looking to salvage some pride in their final home games.
With Colorado's pitching staff posting a league-worst 5.98 ERA and San Diego boasting the second-best run prevention at 3.91 runs per nine innings, this matchup presents a stark contrast in quality that makes the Padres' dominance almost inevitable.
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies prediction: who will win?
For tonight's San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies matchup, our predictive model gives the Padres a 74% chance of defeating the Rockies.
San Diego Padres: 74% win probability
- Strong offensive production averaging 4.2 runs per game (632 runs in 149 games)
- Solid defensive unit allowing just 3.8 runs per game (572 runs against in 149 games)
- Competitive .544 winning percentage keeping them in playoff contention at 81-68
Colorado Rockies: 26% win probability
- Historically poor season with MLB's worst record at 41-108 (.275 winning percentage)
- Defensively atrocious allowing 6.3 runs per game (946 runs against in 149 games)
- Struggling offense managing just 3.7 runs per game (552 runs in 149 games)
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Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Padres vs. Rockies Odds
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San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies preview
The Padres head into Sunday's series finale at Petco Park looking to cap off what should be a dominant sweep against a Rockies squad that's endured one of the worst seasons in franchise history at 40-107.
German Marquez takes the ball for Colorado, carrying a respectable 4.61 career ERA despite pitching for consistently poor teams, while San Diego counters with veteran Yu Darvish, who's been a steady force in their rotation with his signature mix of breaking balls.
The offensive disparity tells the whole story here—San Diego's lineup has managed 4.21 runs per game compared to Colorado's anemic 3.7, though both clubs have struggled to generate consistent power this season.
Perhaps more telling is the pitching gulf, where the Padres boast the second-best team ERA in baseball at 3.62 while the Rockies sit dead last at 5.98, a staggering difference that's defined their seasons.
Colorado's bullpen has been particularly brutal with just a 52% save rate and 24 blown opportunities, making any late-game leads feel precarious against a Padres team that's shown they can capitalize on mistakes.
With playoff positioning still on the line for San Diego, this looks like a mismatch between a team fighting for October and another that's been playing out the string for months.
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