September baseball delivers high-stakes playoff positioning and some of the year's best betting value, with Tuesday's slate featuring power surges from proven sluggers and strikeout props on rising pitchers.
Our MLB best bets target three home run plays with strong historical matchups — Manny Machado's 3-for-5 success against Clay Holmes, Eugenio Suarez's .447 average versus Michael Wacha, and Teoscar Hernandez's two bombs in nine at-bats against Cristopher Sanchez.
We've also identified strikeout value with Cubs rookie Cade Horton facing Pittsburgh's right-handed struggles and reliable veteran spots that cash based on recent form and matchup data.
MLB best bets
| Game | Time | Pick |
|---|---|---|
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Pirates vs. Cubs betting tips
The Pirates rank seventh-highest in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season, creating an ideal matchup for Horton.
Pittsburgh has maintained that high strikeout rate over the past 30 days, showing this isn't just a seasonal fluke but a consistent weakness.
Horton has been finding his groove lately, posting an 8.92 K/9 rate over his last seven starts compared to just 6.48 early in the season.
His strikeout percentage has jumped from 17.3% to 25.9% during that same seven-start stretch, indicating improved command and stuff.
At plus odds, this bet offers solid value for a pitcher facing a strikeout-prone lineup while trending in the right direction.
Mets vs. Padres betting tips
Machado enters this matchup against Mets right-hander Clay Holmes with excellent history, going 3-for-5 lifetime against the former Yankee.
The Padres slugger has been scorching hot lately, homering in two straight games against Colorado over the weekend.
His 25 home runs this season include 14 against right-handed pitching, showing he can handle righties like Holmes.
At 33, Machado remains one of baseball's most consistent power threats and has the track record to suggest he can take Holmes deep.
The +495 odds provide excellent value for a hitter who has already proven he can solve this particular pitcher.
Royals vs. Mariners betting tips
Suarez has absolutely dominated Royals starter Michael Wacha throughout his career, posting a ridiculous 17-for-38 record with two home runs.
That .447 batting average against Wacha is absurd and suggests the Mariners slugger sees the ball well against the right-hander.
Wacha has been particularly vulnerable to right-handed hitters this season, allowing 10 of his 13 home runs to righties.
Suarez has been locked in during September with three home runs already, bringing his season total to an impressive 45 bombs.
With the Mariners fighting for a playoff spot, expect Suarez to stay aggressive in this favorable matchup against a pitcher he owns.
Twins vs. Yankees betting tips
Chisholm enters in a 0-for-7 slump but faces the perfect matchup to break out against Twins starter Zebby Matthews.
Matthews has been brutalized by left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .362 wOBA and .844 OPS to lefties.
The Yankees infielder has been excellent against right-handed pitching all year, posting a .367 wOBA and .862 OPS with a strong .282 ISO.
Hitting in the middle of New York's loaded lineup gives Chisholm plenty of RBI and run-scoring opportunities.
Even in a mini-slump, his season-long success against righties and Matthews' struggles versus lefties make this an excellent spot to back the over.
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