The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Chicago Cubs at PNC Park on Tuesday in a clash between two teams heading in opposite directions, with the playoff-bound Cubs (-160) looking to maintain momentum against a Pirates squad that's been competitive at home despite their disappointing record.
All eyes will be on the pitching matchup as Chicago sends rising prospect Cade Horton (2.70 ERA) against Pittsburgh's ace Paul Skenes, whose dominant 1.94 ERA and electric stuff have been one of the few bright spots in the Pirates' season.
With Chicago sitting 20 games ahead in the standings but Pittsburgh playing spoiler on their home turf, this game offers solid betting value on both sides of a tight total set at 9 runs.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs matchup, our predictive model gives the Cubs a 64.5% chance of defeating the Pirates.
Pittsburgh Pirates: 35.5% win probability
- Worst offense in National League (540 runs scored in 151 games)
- Poor recent form with multiple losing streaks (LLWLL over last 5)
- Bottom-tier NL Central record (65-86, 21 games behind Cubs)
Chicago Cubs: 64.5% win probability
- Strong offensive production (731 runs scored vs Pirates' 540)
- Superior overall record (86-64 vs Pirates' 65-86)
- Better recent form entering hot streak (WWLWW vs Pirates' LLWLL)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Pirates vs. Cubs Odds
These are the best MLB odds we found across major U.S. sportsbooks for this game.
Odds are based on the latest data at publication and are subject to real-time updates.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs preview
The Cubs arrive at PNC Park riding a solid 85-64 record that has them firmly in playoff contention, while the Pirates are playing out the string at 65-85 in what's been a disappointing campaign.
Chicago's offense has been quietly productive, averaging 4.9 runs per game behind 200 home runs and a respectable .320 on-base percentage, though they'll face a tough test against Paul Skenes and his dominant 1.94 ERA.
Skenes has been nothing short of spectacular for Pittsburgh, posting video game numbers with a 0.932 WHIP and striking out batters at an elite rate of 5.25 per walk.
The Cubs counter with Cade Horton, who brings his own impressive 2.70 ERA and solid 10-4 career record to the mound in what shapes up as a quality pitching matchup.
Pittsburgh's offense has struggled mightily this season, ranking dead last in runs per game at just 3.60, making run production a major concern against a Cubs staff that's allowed just 3.86 runs per nine innings.
With Chicago needing every win they can get for their playoff push and the Pirates playing the spoiler role at home, this sets up as a classic late-season clash where pitching could well decide the outcome.
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