The New York Mets host the San Diego Padres at Citi Field on Wednesday night in a crucial late-season matchup that could shape playoff positioning for both clubs.
Despite San Diego entering as heavy road favorites at -210, the Mets hold home-field advantage and a slight edge in predictive models, with their 4.69 runs per game ranking 9 spots higher than the Padres' 4.3.
Nick Pivetta takes the mound for San Diego against New York's David Peterson in what projects as a pitcher-friendly contest with the total set at just 8.5 runs.
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres prediction: who will win?
For tonight's New York Mets vs San Diego Padres matchup, our predictive model gives the Mets a 59.5% chance of defeating the Padres.
New York Mets: 59.5% win probability
- Strong offensive production with 712 runs scored, ranking 6th in the National League
- Solid home field advantage as they sit 2nd in the competitive NL East Division
- Recent momentum building with improved play after early season struggles
San Diego Padres: 40.5% win probability
- Inconsistent recent form showing LWWLW in their last five games
- Road struggles evident in tough NL West Division battles
- Lower run production at 644 runs scored compared to Mets' 712
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Mets vs. Padres Odds
These are the best MLB odds we found across major U.S. sportsbooks for this game.
Odds are based on the latest data at publication and are subject to real-time updates.
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New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres preview
The Padres arrive in Queens riding high as the better team on paper, sitting five games ahead of the Mets in the standings with a stellar 3.64 team ERA that ranks third in baseball.
New York finds itself in a must-win mindset with playoff hopes hanging in the balance, though they've shown resilience at home and boast a slightly better offensive output at 4.69 runs per game.
The pitching matchup features Nick Pivetta taking the ball for San Diego against David Peterson, two veterans with contrasting styles but similar career ERAs hovering around 4.00.
San Diego's bullpen has been a weapon all season with a solid 74.2% save rate, while the Mets' relief corps has struggled mightily, converting just 58.5% of their save opportunities.
Defense could play a pivotal role as both clubs field at nearly identical rates, but the Padres have turned significantly more double plays and rank second in defensive efficiency.
The betting public clearly favors San Diego at heavy minus odds, yet this sets up as the type of September game where desperation often trumps talent on the diamond.
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