The Chicago Cubs visit the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on Thursday with playoff positioning at stake, as Chicago (87-64) sits 12 games ahead of Cincinnati (75-76) but still fighting for postseason seeding.
Colin Rea takes the mound for the Cubs against Hunter Greene, with oddsmakers installing Chicago as -145 favorites despite playing on the road.
The Cubs' superior offense has averaged 4.9 runs per game compared to Cincinnati's 4.48, while both teams have struggled with consistency in their bullpens down the stretch.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs matchup, our predictive model gives the Cubs a 61% chance of defeating the Reds.
Cincinnati Reds: 39% win probability
- Mediocre .500 winning percentage (76-76 record) showing inconsistent play
- Recent struggles with WLWLL form indicating poor momentum entering this matchup
- Defensive concerns having allowed 656 runs compared to Chicago's tighter 610 runs allowed
Chicago Cubs: 61% win probability
- Superior offensive production with 743 runs scored compared to Cincinnati's 682
- Strong winning percentage at .579 (88-64 record) placing them 2nd in the NL Central
- Better run differential allowing just 610 runs while Cincinnati has allowed 656
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Reds vs. Cubs Odds
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs preview
The Cubs roll into Great American Ball Park with playoff implications hanging over this divisional clash, carrying an 87-64 record that puts them well ahead of Cincinnati's disappointing 75-76 campaign.
Chicago's offense has been clicking with 203 home runs and a solid .321 team OBP, while their pitching staff sits seventh in the majors with a 3.81 ERA and has been particularly stingy in allowing earned runs.
Colin Rea takes the ball for Chicago, bringing a 4.50 career ERA but recent stability to a rotation that's helped fuel their late-season push.
The Reds counter with Hunter Greene, whose 3.73 career ERA and strong strikeout rate give Cincinnati their best chance to play spoiler in front of the home crowd.
With Chicago's bullpen converting saves at nearly 70% and Greene's ability to rack up strikeouts, this shapes up as a pitcher-friendly affair despite the 9-run total.
The Cubs need every win they can get as September winds down, while Cincinnati looks to salvage some pride and potentially derail their division rival's postseason hopes.
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