The New York Mets travel to Miami this Saturday looking to keep their late-season push alive against a Marlins team that has quietly played solid baseball at loanDepot park.
With Sean Manaea taking the ball for the Mets against Miami's Eury Perez, this matchup features two clubs separated by just four games in the standings but heading in different directions.
The betting market shows modest confidence in New York at -122, though Miami's +102 home odds suggest this divisional clash could go either way.
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Miami Marlins vs New York Mets matchup, our predictive model gives the Marlins a 54.5% chance of defeating the Mets.
Miami Marlins: 54.5% win probability
- Home field advantage with strong recent momentum (2-3 in last 5 but won last 2 games)
- Better offensive production averaging 4.4 runs per game (705 runs in 160 games)
- Superior run differential at -88 compared to Mets' -50, showing more competitive games
New York Mets: 45.5% win probability
- Road struggles evident in identical 78-82 record despite higher expectations
- Inconsistent recent form going 2-3 in last 5 games with losses in 3 of 5
- Defensive concerns allowing 4.4 runs per game (711 runs against in 160 games)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Marlins vs. Mets Odds
These are the best MLB odds we found across major U.S. sportsbooks for this game.
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Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets preview
The Marlins find themselves playing spoiler in the final week of the season, hosting a Mets team that's clinging to playoff hopes with an 81-77 record against Miami's disappointing 77-81 campaign.
Sean Manaea takes the ball for New York carrying a 4.09 ERA and solid strikeout numbers, while Miami counters with young Eury Perez, who's shown promise with a 3.68 ERA despite the team's struggles.
Both offenses have been middling this season, with the Mets averaging 4.8 runs per game compared to Miami's 4.42, though New York's slightly better power numbers could make the difference in hitter-friendly loanDepot park.
The bullpens tell different stories, as Miami's relievers have been more reliable with a 63.9% save rate compared to New York's shaky 58.2% mark.
With the betting line favoring the visitors at -122, this shapes up as the type of late-season game where motivation and execution matter more than talent on paper.
For Miami, it's about pride and potentially playing the role of spoiler, while the Mets desperately need every win they can get with October dreams still alive.
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