Saturday's MLB slate delivers compelling betting value across the board as the regular season winds down, with Aaron Judge chasing history and divisional races heating up.
The Yankees' MVP candidate faces familiar foe Tomoyuki Sugano at +155 to homer while struggling pitching matchups in Chicago and Philadelphia create attractive over opportunities.
Our expert analysis targets the strongest plays from Wrigley Field to Yankee Stadium, backed by advanced metrics and recent trends that give bettors a clear edge.
MLB best bets
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Yankees vs. Orioles betting tips
The Yankees have won 9 of their last 11 games and are riding a hot streak at home against weaker competition.
New York has won by at least two runs in each of their last five victories against Baltimore specifically.
Cam Schlittler dominated Baltimore in his last start, allowing just three hits and one earned run over 5.1 innings.
Tomoyuki Sugano was shelled by the Yankees in his previous outing, lasting only three innings while giving up six hits and four runs.
The stakes are extra high with the AL East crown on the line, and the Yankees have momentum while Baltimore has dropped 5 of 8.
Judge has been absolutely locked in against Tomoyuki Sugano, going 6-for-7 lifetime with two home runs already.
The Yankees slugger just hit his 52nd home run on Friday and has four bombs in his last six games.
Judge performs exceptionally well at Yankee Stadium with 25 home runs at home this season.
Sugano has been generous to power hitters, allowing 30 home runs in just 29 starts this year.
Judge has taken right-handed pitchers deep 36 times in 2025, showing clear platoon advantage in this matchup.
Cubs vs. Cardinals betting tips
Both starting pitchers present significant fade opportunities based on their underlying metrics and recent form.
Jameson Taillon ranks poorly in expected ERA, expected batting average, strikeout rate, and barrel rate despite recent strong results.
The Cubs offense ranks top 8 in runs per game, slugging percentage, OPS, and home runs, setting up well for run production.
Michael McGreevy has struggled with a 4.35 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, but his analytics are even worse with a 4.80 expected ERA.
The Over has hit in 5 of the last 7 meetings between these teams, supporting the trend continuation.
Phillies vs. Twins betting tips
Schwarber sits on 56 home runs and has been scorching hot with seven bombs in September alone.
He's gone deep three times in his last four games, including a two-homer performance against Miami on Wednesday.
The Phillies face Mick Abel, a former prospect they traded who has never faced Philadelphia or Schwarber specifically.
Abel has struggled mightily with a 7.36 ERA and has surrendered eight home runs in just nine outings.
Schwarber crushes righties at home with 33 home runs off right-handed pitching and 33 bombs at Citizens Bank Park.
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