MLB Best Bets October 4: Game 1 Postseason Picks and Expert Predictions

MLB postseason action heats up Saturday with three pivotal Game 1 matchups that offer sharp betting angles across multiple markets.Home underdogs are catching our attention, with Toronto (-125) hosting the Yankees despite identical regular season records, while proven aces like Kevin Gausman and Freddy Peralta create compelling strikeout props.Our expert analysis targets disciplined approaches in high-leverage spots, including fade opportunities on inflated totals and pitcher props that capitalize on recent trends and head-to-head history. The Blue Jays present excellent value as home favorites after winning the season series 8-5 against New York with a plus-11 run differential.Toronto counters with ace Kevin Gausman, who has dominated the Yankees in his last two starts, allowing just two runs across 15 innings.The Yankees turn to Luis Gil, whose 4.79 expected ERA suggests regression is coming despite his 3.32 surface numbers.Gil ranks in the bottom 20th percentile for average exit velocity and strikeout rate, while sitting in the bottom fifth percentile for walk rate.The well-rested Blue Jays at home with the pitching advantage makes this line too generous to pass up."}],"homeTeam":{"name":"Blue Jays","logo":"https://storage.googleapis.com/kibg-uploads/uploads/2025/07/1753281611-team-logo-70WJD6H6.png"},"awayTeam":{"name":"Yankees","logo":"https://storage.googleapis.com/kibg-uploads/uploads/2025/07/1753281470-team-logo-F9T5K1G6.png"},"venue":"Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario","matchDate":{"value":"2025-10-04T20:08:00.000Z","timezone":"America/New_York"}},{"fixtureId":"MQ3U7DV0","id":"904e10e7-9646-4e83-9551-6feb32886995","picks":[{"id":"0f1c2109-8b98-4877-9d36-85426754f0ce","pickName":"Freddy Peralta Over 6.5 Strikeouts","oddsValue":"+105","partnerId":"","description":"Peralta has been exceptional this season with a 2.70 ERA and ranks in the 83rd percentile for whiff rate and 84th percentile for strikeout rate.The right-hander has recorded seven or more strikeouts in four of his past five full starts, showing consistent form down the stretch.Against the Cubs specifically, Peralta owns them with a 2.67 ERA and 10.96 strikeouts per nine innings over their last six meetings.Current Cubs hitters show a troubling 29.3% strikeout rate and 29.9% whiff rate in 205 combined plate appearances against Peralta.His underlying metrics are elite across the board, ranking in the 80th percentile or better in multiple key categories."}],"homeTeam":{"name":"Brewers","logo":"https://storage.googleapis.com/kibg-uploads/uploads/2025/07/1753281427-team-logo-B23J3FOX.png"},"awayTeam":{"name":"Cubs","logo":"https://storage.googleapis.com/kibg-uploads/uploads/2025/07/1753281188-team-logo-G7I98EP0.png"},"venue":"American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin","matchDate":{"value":"2025-10-04T18:08:00.000Z","timezone":"America/New_York"}},{"fixtureId":"96PTAAQM","id":"741dd0ab-1b5a-4bbd-8e41-a9f3267d9d7f","picks":[{"id":"787e6f56-d16d-4ef3-b143-b1918e1c4f67","pickName":"Cristopher Sanchez Under 6.5 Strikeouts","oddsValue":"-132","partnerId":"","description":"Sanchez has recorded six or fewer strikeouts in nine of his past 12 starts, making this total too high for the matchup.The Dodgers finished with the 10th-lowest strikeout rate in baseball while ranking third in wOBA and second in ISO against lefties.Los Angeles just faced Sanchez on September 28 and struck out only six times while scoring four runs in seven innings.The Dodgers also posted the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in the final month of the season, showing improved plate discipline.Even with Sanchez's solid 25.5% strikeout rate recently, it will take a nearly flawless performance to reach seven strikeouts against this disciplined lineup."},{"id":"9473a688-ea6a-4ffc-9d82-0ee7943d570a","pickName":"Over 7.5 Total Runs","oddsValue":"Over 7.5","partnerId":"","description":"Both bullpens struggled late in the season, with the Dodgers ranking 25th with a 4.90 ERA in September and allowing five runs in 4.1 innings during the Wild Card series.Philadelphia's bullpen posted a deceptive 3.59 ERA in September but ranked 29th with a 4.58 expected FIP, suggesting underlying issues.The Phillies ranked fifth in wOBA and eighth in ISO against right-handed pitching during the regular season, matching up well against Ohtani.Los Angeles boasts one of the most potent lineups in baseball, capable of breaking through against quality pitching late in games.Runs should come late as both teams dig into their questionable relief corps in a high-stakes playoff atmosphere."}],"homeTeam":{"name":"Phillies","logo":"https://storage.googleapis.com/kibg-uploads/uploads/2025/07/1753281487-team-logo-WZA8E6KY.png"},"awayTeam":{"name":"Dodgers","logo":"https://storage.googleapis.com/kibg-uploads/uploads/2025/07/1753281384-team-logo-OTT2XT3J.png"},"venue":"Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania","matchDate":{"value":"2025-10-04T22:38:00.000Z","timezone":"America/New_York"}}]" tablefooter=" Betting on the MLB?Sporting Post is your trusted hub for MLB betting coverage. 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Game	Time	Pick
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