The ALDS heads back to Detroit for a crucial Game 3 showdown between the Mariners and Tigers, with both teams knotted at one win apiece after splitting the opening games.
Seattle enters as slight road favourites at -150, banking on Logan Gilbert's steady arm to outduel Detroit's Jack Flaherty in what shapes up as a pitcher's duel at Comerica Park.
With both clubs posting nearly identical offensive numbers this season and bullpen reliability questions on both sides, this contest could swing on which starter gives their team the deeper outing.
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners matchup, our predictive model gives the Mariners a 64.5% chance of defeating the Tigers.
Detroit Tigers: 35.5% win probability
- Offensive struggles against quality pitching (Averaging 3.8 runs in last 10 games)
- Home field advantage hasn't translated to wins (12-15 record at Comerica Park recently)
- Starting rotation inconsistency with 4.85 ERA over past month
Seattle Mariners: 64.5% win probability
- Strong road performance with consistent hitting approach (Team maintains .267 average away from home)
- Bullpen depth provides late-game stability (ERA under 3.50 in final three innings)
- Pitching staff limits hard contact with 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Tigers vs. Mariners Odds
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Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners preview
This ALDS pivots on a crucial Game 3 showdown at Comerica Park, with the series locked at 1-1 and Detroit riding the energy of their home crowd.
Logan Gilbert takes the mound for Seattle with his steady 3.58 career ERA and excellent command, facing a Tigers lineup that's struck out 1,454 times this season but can still generate power with 198 home runs.
Jack Flaherty counters for Detroit, bringing postseason experience and a solid 1.199 WHIP to bear against a Mariners offense that's averaging 4.7 runs per game but has shown inconsistency throughout the year.
The Tigers' bullpen has been shaky with just a 64.5% save rate, while Seattle's relief corps has blown 26 saves but managed key moments when it mattered most.
Detroit's defensive efficiency sits at 70.2%, slightly behind Seattle's 70.3%, suggesting tight margins in what should be a low-scoring affair befitting October baseball.
Both teams enter with nearly identical offensive output, making this a classic pitcher's duel where one key mistake or clutch hit could determine who takes the series lead.
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