The Toronto Blue Jays are one win away from their first ALCS appearance in nearly a decade, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. might be the real story stealing the spotlight in tonight's potential series clincher at Yankee Stadium.
Vlad Jr. has torched Yankees pitching all season and cashed his total bases prop in seven straight meetings against New York, yet he's still offering plus money at +115 for Tuesday's Game 3 showdown.
Our expert analysis breaks down why the slugger's dominance against Carlos Rodon, combined with a high-scoring environment that's produced fireworks in Games 1 and 2, creates the perfect storm for tonight's best MLB bets and picks.
MLB best bets
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Yankees vs. Blue Jays betting tips
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been absolutely mashing Yankees pitching, going 6-for-10 with two home runs and 12 total bases through the first two games of this series.
His dominance against New York extends beyond this series, hitting .373 with a 1.007 OPS and averaging 2.23 bases per game across 13 regular season matchups.
Guerrero owns Carlos Rodon specifically, posting a ridiculous 10-for-17 career record with a 1.608 OPS and zero strikeouts against the Yankees starter.
The slugger has cashed this prop in seven straight meetings against the Yankees, yet the line remains at 1.5 with plus money available.
Yankee Stadium has been a launching pad for Vlad, where he owns a career 1.002 OPS and averages 2.43 total bases per game outside of Toronto.
Both articles point to serious pitching concerns that should lead to another high-scoring affair in this series.
Carlos Rodon faces a Blue Jays lineup that ranks second in chase contact rate and third in whiff rate, exposing his average barrel rate and elevated walk rate.
Shane Bieber hasn't faced the Yankees in over three years and now draws a team that ranks first in barrel rate in a crucial elimination game.
The first two games of this series have already gone over, establishing a clear trend of offensive production from both clubs.
Bieber's strikeout numbers are down from his peak Cleveland days, making him vulnerable to a powerful Yankees lineup at home.
While Bieber's strikeout rate is down from his peak years, he still averages 5.28 strikeouts per start this season.
The Yankees have already struck out 21 times through the first two games of this series, showing clear vulnerability to swing and miss.
Bieber's slider remains an elite put-away pitch with a 36.7% whiff rate, and the Yankees have struggled against that specific offering.
The elimination game pressure could lead to more aggressive swings from Yankees hitters, potentially increasing strikeout opportunities.
Even with concerns about Bieber's overall effectiveness, his ability to rack up strikeouts against this particular lineup remains intact.
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