The Toronto Blue Jays stand one win away from their first ALCS appearance since 2016, holding a commanding 2-0 series lead as they visit Yankee Stadium for Game 3 of the ALDS.
With Shane Bieber taking the mound for Toronto against the Yankees' Carlos Rodon, both teams face crucial pitching questions in what could be a season-ending elimination game for New York.
The Yankees (-150) enter as home favorites despite their backs against the wall, while the Blue Jays (+125) look to capitalize on their offensive momentum that has powered them through the first two games.
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays prediction: who will win?
For tonight's New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays matchup, our predictive model gives the Yankees a 63% chance of defeating the Blue Jays.
New York Yankees: 63% win probability
- Home field advantage at Yankee Stadium where they typically perform stronger
- Strong offensive production with consistent run-scoring ability throughout the season
- Deep bullpen depth providing reliable late-inning options
Toronto Blue Jays: 37% win probability
- Road struggles limiting their ability to compete away from Rogers Centre
- Inconsistent starting pitching rotation creating early deficits
- Below-average bullpen ERA allowing late-inning collapses
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds
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New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays preview
The Blue Jays arrive at Yankee Stadium with a commanding 2-0 series lead, needing just one victory to punch their ticket to the ALCS for the first time since 2016.
Shane Bieber takes the ball for Toronto in what could be a series-clinching performance, though his strikeout numbers have dipped from his Cy Young peak and he hasn't faced this potent Yankees lineup in over three years.
Carlos Rodon counters for New York in a must-win spot, and while he's been steady over the past month, his strikeout-heavy approach could face trouble against a Blue Jays offense that ranks near the top in making contact on pitches outside the zone.
The Yankees enter as home favorites despite facing elimination, powered by baseball's most productive offense at 5.24 runs per game and a lineup featuring 274 home runs this season.
Both clubs finished the regular season at 94-68, making this ALDS matchup as evenly matched on paper as any postseason series gets.
With the first two games producing offensive fireworks and both starting pitchers carrying question marks, Yankee Stadium could be in store for another high-scoring affair as desperation meets opportunity.
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