October playoff baseball delivers two must-watch elimination games Wednesday, with the Phillies fighting to extend their series against the Dodgers while the Cubs face a season-ending showdown with the Brewers at Wrigley Field.
Our experts see value in both road underdogs, backing Philadelphia at +150 to force a Game 4 behind Aaron Nola's solid postseason track record, and Milwaukee at +105 to close out Chicago despite playing away from home.
With wind conditions favoring pitchers at Wrigley and the Dodgers' bullpen showing cracks, these MLB best bets target the live underdogs in what should be two tightly contested winner-take-all battles.
MLB best bets
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Cubs vs. Brewers betting tips
Milwaukee has dominated this series with 16 runs scored across two convincing victories while maintaining the league's best offense at 5.29 runs per game.
The Brewers finished the regular season with a stellar 41-25 second-half record and haven't shown any signs of slowing down in October baseball.
Chicago's offense has struggled mightily with the highest strikeout percentage this postseason and only 12 total runs across five games.
Quinn Priester brings solid form with a 3.32 ERA and actually performed better on the road with a 2.91 ERA and 6-1 record away from Milwaukee.
The forecasted wind blowing in at Wrigley Field should limit Chicago's home run dependent offense which has generated nine of their 12 runs via the long ball.
Taillon finished the regular season in dominant form with a 1.57 ERA across his final six starts showing excellent command and stuff.
The veteran right-hander struck out 21 batters in 22.1 innings over his final four home appearances at Wrigley Field demonstrating home venue advantage.
His postseason debut against San Diego was impressive with four strikeouts across four scoreless innings proving he can handle October pressure.
The forecasted wind blowing in at Wrigley Field should help Taillon's breaking balls and keep hitters off balance throughout his outing.
Milwaukee's lineup has shown some swing-and-miss tendencies that Taillon can exploit with his improved command and secondary offerings down the stretch.
Dodgers vs. Phillies betting tips
Aaron Nola has shown surprising resilience in postseason play with a 5-4 record across 10 playoff starts and owns a 3.76 ERA at Dodger Stadium specifically.
The Phillies face a favorable matchup against Yoshinobu Yamamoto who struggles with control issues and posted a 3.99 FIP despite strong surface numbers.
Philadelphia's patient approach should exploit Yamamoto's 8.6% walk rate while their .396 slugging percentage against ground-ball pitchers ranks ninth in MLB.
The Dodgers bullpen carries fatigue concerns after extended use in the first two games which could benefit Philadelphia if Nola keeps the game close.
With the Phillies offense due for positive regression after striking out in over 30% of plate appearances through two games, the value on the underdog moneyline presents solid opportunity.
Realmuto has been Philadelphia's most consistent weapon against ground-ball pitchers this season with an impressive .337 batting average in 111 plate appearances.
His aggressive approach against ground-ball specialists means he swings early in counts which should favor him against Yamamoto's style.
The Phillies catcher owns a 1-for-2 career record against Yamamoto and carries momentum with five hits across his last four games.
Realmuto's recent form bridges both regular season and playoffs indicating he's locked in at the plate during this crucial stretch.
Against a pitcher who allows contact and works in the strike zone frequently Realmuto's aggressive swing should generate solid contact opportunities.
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