The Detroit Tigers have forced a decisive Game 5 after their commanding victory over the Seattle Mariners on Wednesday, setting up a winner-take-all showdown at T-Mobile Park on Friday night.
Detroit will lean on ace Tarik Skubal, who has dominated this postseason with 23 strikeouts in 14 2/3 innings, while Seattle faces uncertainty with their pitching plan likely featuring mid-rotation arms George Kirby and Luis Castillo.
With both offenses struggling at .218 and .219 respectively in this series, the team that can generate timely hits behind superior pitching should punch their ticket to the ALCS.
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers matchup, our predictive model gives the Tigers a 63.5% chance of defeating the Mariners.
Seattle Mariners: 36.5% win probability
- Inconsistent offensive production limiting run support (Mariners struggle to generate consistent offense)
- Starting rotation concerns affecting early game control (Seattle's starters have given up early leads)
- Defensive miscues creating extra scoring opportunities for opponents (Mariners errors have cost them close games)
Detroit Tigers: 63.5% win probability
- Strong offensive momentum in recent games (Tigers have shown consistent run production)
- Solid bullpen depth providing late-inning stability (Detroit's relievers have limited opposing scoring)
- Effective situational hitting with runners in scoring position (Tigers convert key opportunities)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Mariners vs. Tigers Odds
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Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers preview
The Detroit Tigers find themselves in the driver's seat for Game 5 with ace Tarik Skubal taking the mound, a luxury Seattle can't match with their patchwork pitching plan.
Skubal has been untouchable this postseason, surrendering just eight hits across 14 2/3 innings with 23 strikeouts, including dominant work against these same Mariners batters.
Both offenses have struggled mightily in this series, with Detroit hitting .218 and Seattle at .219, though the Tigers have shown better plate discipline with a 9.2% walk rate.
Riley Greene continues to be Detroit's most consistent threat, collecting hits in five of seven playoff games while Jorge Polanco brings familiarity against his former batterymate Skubal.
Seattle's likely starter George Kirby has been vulnerable to quality contact all season, posting a concerning .257 expected batting average that could spell trouble in an elimination game.
With the series deadlocked and everything on the line, this shapes up as a classic pitcher's duel where one mistake could send either team packing.
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