MLB Picks & the Best MLB Bets Today
Get expert MLB picks and best bets today, powered by data and AI.
Sporting Post’s advanced model combines expert analysis with AI-driven insights to deliver top MLB picks daily.
Whether you’re betting moneyline, totals, run lines, or player props, our expert best bets give you the edge throughout the 2025 baseball season.
White Sox vs Tigers YRFI (-105)
Christian Yelich Over 0.5 RBIs (+180)
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115)
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 RBI (+120)
How we come up with our MLB picks and best bets
At Sporting Post, our MLB picks are built on a tested process that blends expert insight, real-time market tracking, and AI-powered data models.
Each day, we analyze every matchup to identify the sharpest betting opportunities across moneylines, run lines, totals, and player props.
Expert-driven selection process
We begin with detailed input from MLB analysts and bettors who live and breathe baseball.
These experts monitor everything from team form and starting pitchers to bullpen fatigue, weather conditions, park factors, and recent trends.
They also look at historical matchup data, lineup splits (lefty/righty), and travel schedules. These factors often shape the outcome, but don’t always show up in the odds.
This human layer helps us spot value plays early, before the public or sportsbooks catch on.
Market analysis and identifying value bets
Next, we track sportsbook odds across top betting sites and look for line movement and pricing gaps.
Our team compares those lines with internal projections to uncover off-market opportunities. These are spots where the odds don’t align with expected outcomes.
For example, if our model shows a total should be 9.5 runs but books list it at 8.5, we flag that as a potential over bet. This approach helps us stay ahead of the market and avoid overvalued lines.
AI-powered confidence ratings
We feed historical MLB data, real-time stats, and betting trends into our AI model to score each possible pick.
The model considers pitching matchups, offensive performance, pace of play, and more, assigning a confidence rating to every bet.
These ratings help us filter out lower-probability plays and focus on those with a stronger statistical edge.
Finalizing the best bets
Before we lock in our MLB best bets, we combine everything: expert opinion, market context, and AI rankings.
We double-check each selection against late-breaking news like lineup changes, starting pitcher confirmations, and injury reports to make sure the pick still holds value.
Only the most reliable, data-backed plays make it into our final recommendations.
Whether it's early in the season or playoff time, our MLB picks are built to help bettors make smarter, more confident decisions all year long.
Types of MLB picks
MLB betting offers a wide range of pick types, each suited to different strategies and matchups.
At Sporting Post, we cover all major markets to help bettors find the right edge. Here's a breakdown of the most common types of MLB picks and when they matter most.
Moneyline picks
The moneyline is the simplest and most popular bet type in baseball. You're picking which team will win the game outright, regardless of the final score.
Favorites are listed with negative odds (e.g. -145), meaning you need to stake that amount to win $100.
Underdogs have positive odds (e.g. +130), showing how much you’d win on a $100 bet.
Moneyline picks are often based on starting pitching matchups, bullpen strength, and recent form. Because MLB games can be low-scoring and unpredictable, underdog picks often hold value, especially in divisional games or with strong pitchers going for weaker teams.
Run line picks
The run line is baseball’s version of a point spread. Most run lines are set at 1.5 runs.
A favorite at -1.5 needs to win by 2 or more runs.
An underdog at +1.5 can win the game or lose by 1 run and still cover.
Run lines offer better odds on favorites and a cushion for underdogs. They're useful when you want more value than the moneyline offers or expect a close game with a tight score.
Over/under picks (totals)
Totals focus on the combined number of runs scored by both teams. You’re betting whether the final score will go over or under a number set by the sportsbook.
For example, if the total is 8.5 runs:
Over bettors win if the final score is 5–4 (9 runs).
Under bettors win if it's 4–3 (7 runs).
Totals are influenced by factors like weather, ballpark dimensions, starting pitchers, and bullpen usage. Wind blowing out at Wrigley Field or a thin-air night at Coors Field can drive totals up.
First five inning (F5) picks
F5 picks isolate the first five innings of a game. You can bet the moneyline, total, or run line just for the first half.
These are ideal when you trust a starting pitcher but don't want to worry about the bullpen. F5 markets eliminate late-inning variance and focus purely on the starting rotation matchup.
Player prop picks
Player props are bets on individual performance, such as:
A hitter to get over 1.5 total bases
A pitcher to record 7 or more strikeouts
A player to hit a home run
Props are driven by matchups, ballpark factors, batter-pitcher history, and recent trends. They're useful for finding edges beyond the standard team markets and are especially popular in prime-time games.
Team props
Team props focus on outcomes like:
A team to score first
Total team runs over/under
Will a team hit a home run?
These are good options when you have strong data on team performance but don't want to rely on a full-game result. They also work well for live betting or partial-game strategies.
Parlays
Parlays combine multiple picks into one bet. All legs must win for the parlay to cash, but the payout increases with each added pick.
For example:
Yankees ML + Over 8.5 runs + Aaron Judge to hit a home run
Parlays are high-risk, high-reward, and best used in moderation. They’re popular among casual bettors but require sharp selection to be profitable long term.
Same-game parlays (SGPs)
SGPs let you combine multiple picks from the same game—like pairing a team to win with a player prop or total.
Example:
Dodgers to win + Mookie Betts to get 2+ hits + Over 9.5 runs
These allow for targeted correlation (e.g. if you expect a team to score big, stacking related props can multiply your edge). Books limit SGP options, so it's important to check what's available per game.
Live picks (in-game betting)
Live betting lets you place wagers after the game has started. Markets shift based on real-time action, allowing you to react to:
Momentum swings
Pitcher performance
Injuries or ejections
Live MLB picks can offer value when a starter exits early, or a team strands runners in scoring position. It rewards quick thinking and strong game awareness.
Futures picks
Futures are long-term bets, such as:
A team to win the World Series
A player to win MVP or Cy Young
Division or win total over/unders
These picks require research and timing. Getting in early before odds shift—especially after trades or injuries—can lock in value that won't be available later in the season.
Each type of MLB pick serves a purpose. The key is knowing when and how to use them based on the matchup, betting line, and your own strategy.
At Sporting Post, we use a mix of these markets daily to build a diverse, value-focused slate of expert picks.
How to use and wager on Sporting Post’s MLB picks & best bets
Sporting Post’s MLB picks are designed to give you a betting edge, but using them correctly is key to long-term success.
Whether you’re a casual bettor or more experienced, following a consistent process will help you get the most value from our expert predictions.
Here’s how to apply our picks step by step:
1. Read each pick carefully
Each best bet comes with a full breakdown.
We explain why we’re making the pick, what data supports it, and what odds we recommend taking.
Pay attention to:
The listed odds or lines (moneyline, run line, total, etc.)
The reasoning behind the pick (pitching matchup, injury news, weather, market movement)
Whether it’s a full-game bet, first five innings, or a player/team prop
This context helps you understand not just what to bet, but why it makes sense.
2. Shop for the best odds
Once you know the pick, check multiple sports betting apps to find the best price available. A small difference in betting odds—like -115 vs -110—can add up over the season.
Use odds comparison tools or check sites like:
Getting the best number is just as important as picking the right side.
3. Bet within your bankroll
Stick to a consistent staking method.
If you're a flat bettor, wager the same amount on each pick. If you're using unit sizing, keep it between 1 and 3 units per play depending on the confidence you have in the pick.
Avoid chasing losses or doubling down. Our system is built for the long haul, not short-term swings.
4. Track your results
Keep a simple record of:
Each bet you placed
The odds you got
The outcome (win/loss/push)
Your profit or loss
Tracking results helps you stay accountable and identify what types of bets work best for you.
5. Understand different bet types
Our MLB best bets may include:
Moneyline picks: Who wins the game
Run line bets: Covers a +1.5 or -1.5 spread
Over/unders (totals): Betting on the total number of runs
F5 picks: First five innings only
Props: Player or team-specific outcomes
Knowing how each market works helps you apply the pick properly.
6. Stay updated on changes
MLB lineups can change late in the day, especially with injuries or last-minute pitcher swaps. Always check the official lineup and starting pitcher before placing a bet.
If something changes and the logic behind the pick no longer holds (e.g. a key player is scratched), consider skipping or adjusting the bet.
7. Use picks as part of a larger strategy
Sporting Post’s picks are a great foundation, but smart bettors also look at:
Live betting opportunities
Hedge options if lines move
Correlated plays (like pairing a team with the over if their offense is in form)
Treat our picks as part of your overall game plan, not the only source of decisions.
8. Be selective with parlays
While it’s tempting to combine multiple best bets into a parlay, remember that parlays increase risk and reduce long-term profitability.
Use them sparingly and only when picks align well.
9. Be patient and stay disciplined
Even with a smart, data-driven approach, not every bet will win. Variance is part of baseball betting.
Trust the process, stay disciplined with your bankroll, and focus on long-term results rather than daily outcomes.
How weather & ballparks affect MLB picks
Weather and ballpark conditions play a major role in baseball outcomes, and smart bettors use them to gain an edge.
Unlike other sports, external factors like wind, humidity, and stadium layout can dramatically affect scoring, home run rates, and pitcher performance.
Why weather matters in MLB betting
Wind: The direction and speed of the wind can shift a game total. Wind blowing out increases the chance of home runs and run-scoring. Wind blowing in can suppress offense, especially in open-air parks like Wrigley Field.
Humidity: Higher humidity can help the ball carry farther, slightly boosting power numbers. Dry air may favor pitchers by reducing ball flight.
Temperature: Warm weather tends to benefit hitters. Cold nights can deaden the ball, reduce offense, and make grip tougher for pitchers.
Rain delays: Sudden stoppages can lead to starting pitchers being pulled early. This creates unpredictable bullpen situations that often favor live bettors who react quickly.
Ballpark factors that impact MLB picks
Each MLB stadium plays differently due to its size, altitude, wall height, and field conditions.
Hitter-friendly parks:
Coors Field (Rockies): High altitude increases carry, making it a strong venue for overs and extra-base hits.
Great American Ball Park (Reds): Small dimensions and short fences boost home run totals.
Citizens Bank Park (Phillies): Favors power hitters, especially when the wind is blowing out.
Pitcher-friendly parks:
Oracle Park (Giants): Deep outfield and marine air suppress power.
Tropicana Field (Rays): Controlled indoor environment and neutral dimensions help pitchers.
Petco Park (Padres): Spacious field and cooler air keep scoring lower.
Knowing which parks inflate or suppress offense helps you make sharper picks on totals, player props (like home runs or total bases), and even first five-inning bets.
How we use this information
At Sporting Post, our models factor in:
Weather forecasts for each stadium
Ballpark run-scoring history
Air density, wind speed and direction, and temperature
Pitcher and hitter splits in specific park conditions
This data helps us decide whether a game leans toward a low-scoring under, a high-variance over, or if certain hitters might outperform expectations based on ballpark setup.
Betting on MLB?
Sporting Post is your go-to source for MLB betting, offering expert MLB predictions, MLB odds, and MLB best bets every day of the season. Our team delivers in-depth game analysis, real-time insights, and data-backed win probabilities to help you make smarter wagers.
We’ve also tested and reviewed the top MLB betting sites so you can bet safely with trusted, licensed sportsbooks.
New to baseball betting? Check out our step-by-step guide on how to bet on baseball for tips, strategies, and a full breakdown of moneylines, run lines, and totals.