How Does Underdog Betting Work?
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Last Updated: 6 August, 2025
Underdog betting is when you place a bet on the team or player expected to lose.
In sports betting, underdogs have longer odds and offer bigger payouts if they win.
They’re listed with a plus sign, like +150, meaning a $100 bet returns $150 profit.
How does underdog sports betting work?
Underdog sports betting is about backing the team or player that’s expected to lose.
Because underdogs are less likely to win, legal sportsbooks offer higher payouts if they pull off the upset.
You’ll usually see underdogs listed with a plus (+) in front of their odds, like +180.
That means a $100 bet would return $180 profit if it wins.
How to place an underdog bet:
Underdog betting takes more risk, but with the right timing and research, it can offer strong value.
Why bettors love underdog bets
There’s a reason underdog betting continues to attract both casual fans and sharp bettors.
While riskier than betting favorites, underdog bets offer three key things: value, excitement, and potential for bigger payouts.
1. Better payouts for less risk
The most obvious appeal of betting on an underdog is the potential return.
If you place $100 on a team at +200 odds and they win, you profit $200.
That’s double what you’d earn from a typical favorite.
It’s why many bettors are willing to accept a lower win probability for a higher payout.
2. Public bias creates value
In sports betting, the public tends to favor big-name teams and star players.
This pushes more action onto the favorites, inflating their odds and sometimes undervaluing the betting underdog.
Savvy bettors look for these moments when the underdog’s odds don’t reflect their true chance of winning.
3. Emotional connection
Let’s face it, cheering for the underdog just feels good.
The “nothing to lose” mentality, comeback potential, and surprise factor create an emotional experience that’s hard to match.
For many fans, underdog sports betting adds drama and fun to games that might otherwise be one-sided.
4. Underdogs win more than you think
While underdogs win less often overall, they win often enough to be profitable, especially when paired with a smart strategy.
In some leagues, underdogs cover the spread over 50% of the time, meaning they don’t have to win the game outright for your bet to cash.
5. Upsets happen in every sport
From the NFL to UFC to March Madness, unexpected wins are part of the game.
Smart underdog betting is about finding those rare moments when the odds don’t match reality.
Famous Underdog Wins in Sports
Some of the most unforgettable moments in sports history came from teams no one believed would win.
These legendary upsets are a big reason why underdog betting remains so popular.
When the long shot hits, it doesn’t just pay, it makes history.
Super Bowl XLII: Giants (+475) vs. Patriots
In 2007, the New York Giants entered the Super Bowl as 12-point underdogs against the undefeated New England Patriots.
Few gave them a chance but they pulled off a 17–14 shocker, rewarding bettors with +475 odds.
A $100 bet returned $475 profit.
Leicester City: 2015–16 Premier League Champions (+5000)
At the start of the season, Leicester was a 5000-1 long shot to win the league.
They hadn’t even cracked the top half of the year before.
But against all odds, they won the Premier League, one of the greatest betting underdog stories ever.
Buster Douglas Defeats Mike Tyson (+4200)
In 1990, nearly everyone expected Tyson to win.
Douglas stunned the world and oddsmakers by knocking him out in the 10th round.
Bettors who backed Douglas at +4200 saw life-changing payouts.
These moments show why betting the underdog isn’t just about money, it’s about believing in what others overlook.
5 Signs an Underdog Bet Might Be Worth It
Not every underdog is a smart play but some are hiding real value.
Here are five signs a sports betting underdog might be worth your wager:
Recent Form Is Trending Up: The underdog has been playing better than expected in recent games, even if they haven’t won outright.
The Favorite Has Key Injuries: Star players on the favorite’s side are injured, limited, or sitting out. This can shift the matchup more than the odds suggest.
Public Is Overhyping the Favorite: Heavy betting on a popular team often inflates the odds. That can create value on the other side if the matchup is closer than it looks.
Strong Matchup History: Some underdogs consistently play well against specific opponents. Past performances can signal they’re not as outmatched as people think.
Motivational Edge: The underdog is playing with something to prove, fighting for a playoff spot, facing a rival, or trying to break a losing streak. Extra motivation can lead to surprise results.
If you spot two or more of these signs, it could be time to take a closer look at the underdog odds.
Underdog Betting Strategy
Smart underdog betting isn’t about chasing long shots; it’s about knowing when the risk is worth the reward.
Below are three core approaches used by experienced bettors.
Betting on underdogs can be profitable, but only with smart strategy and selective bets.
The higher payouts are tempting, but underdogs win less often for a reason.
To find long-term success, bettors need discipline, value spotting, and a solid understanding of the odds, not just luck.
MLB underdog betting strategy
MLB underdog betting can offer strong value due to the sport’s long season and frequent upsets.
Unlike other sports, even elite teams lose around 60 games per year, making underdog wins more common than most bettors realize.
Key tips for MLB underdog betting:
Target starting pitcher matchups: Look for undervalued pitchers facing high-profile teams with inflated odds.
Bet road underdogs in tight matchups: They often carry extra value due to public bias toward home favorites.
Watch bullpen stats and lineup changes: Late-game performance can flip results in baseball more than in other sports.
Bet early in the season: Oddsmakers have less data early on, which can create mispriced lines.
In baseball, betting underdogs isn’t about guessing; it’s about spotting edges where the numbers don’t match the market.
Find out more about these sportsbooks with our top MLB betting sites guide.
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Contributors
Josh Miller
Author
Josh Miller, Sporting Post’s Sports & Casino Editor, brings over five years of experience in feature writing, blogging, and SEO.
With a strong background in football coverage and sports betting, his work has been featured in VAVEL.
Josh also writes extensively about online casinos, providing expert insights into games, bonuses, and gambling trends.
His engaging and informative content makes him a reliable resource for Sporting Post readers.
Bradley Gibbs
Reviewed By
With over 12 years of experience, Bradley Gibbs is a seasoned sports betting writer and analyst specializing in uncovering value bets across football, horse racing, tennis, and golf.
His extensive coverage of these sports has been featured on numerous websites and in The Racing & Football Outlook, a renowned UK betting publication.
Bradley's expertise lies in identifying betting edges and delivering insightful, data-driven content for informed wagering.