Everton face Southampton in their final Premier League match at historic Goodison Park, with the Toffees looking to avenge their earlier 1-0 defeat at St. Mary's and build on their impressive 3-1 win over Fulham.
David Moyes's side has lost just one of their last eight league outings at home, while the Saints arrive with the Premier League's worst away record and having managed just one win in their last 26 top-flight matches.
With Beto finding his scoring touch and Southampton's defense leaking goals consistently on the road, the stage is set for the Toffees to deliver a fitting farewell to their longtime home.
Everton vs. Southampton prediction: who will win?
For today's Everton vs Southampton matchup, our predictive model gives the Toffees a 78.33% chance of defeating the Saints.
Pre-game probabilities
Everton
Moneyline
Win %
78.33%
21.67%
Southampton
Everton: 78.33% win probability
- Solid defensive record (44 goals conceded in 36 matches, 5th best among bottom-half teams)
- Strong home advantage complemented by recent form (WDLLW in last five matches)
- Significantly better points tally (42 points compared to Southampton's 12 points)
Southampton: 21.67% win probability
- Catastrophic defensive vulnerabilities (82 goals conceded, worst in the league)
- Dreadful away form (2 wins in 36 matches overall with recent form of DLLDL)
- Impotent attack (only 25 goals scored in 36 matches, lowest in the Premier League)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts. Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts..
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Everton vs. Southampton preview
Everton will aim to sign off from Goodison Park in style when they host already-relegated Southampton in their final Premier League home fixture before moving to Bramley Moore Dock next season.
The Toffees enter this emotional occasion buoyed by a convincing 3-1 victory at Fulham last weekend, with Beto continuing his impressive late-season form after netting in consecutive matches.
David Moyes's side will be seeking revenge after suffering a 1-0 defeat at St Mary's earlier this campaign – one of just two losses Southampton have inflicted on anyone during their miserable season.
While the Saints showed unexpected resilience to hold Manchester City to a goalless draw last weekend, their dreadful away record – having conceded multiple goals in seven of their last nine road trips – suggests they'll struggle at Goodison.
Everton will need to reorganize their defense with James Tarkowski sidelined through injury, but with Southampton managing just one win in their last 26 league matches, the hosts will fancy their chances of delivering a fitting farewell performance.
Everton vs. Southampton form
Everton vs. Southampton head to head
Everton
40%
Southampton
60%
Nov 2, 2024
Southampton
1 : 0
Everton
Sep 17, 2024
Everton
1 : 1
Southampton
Jan 14, 2023
Everton
1 : 2
Southampton
Oct 1, 2022
Southampton
1 : 2
Everton
Feb 19, 2022
Southampton
2 : 0
Everton
Aug 14, 2021
Everton
3 : 1
Southampton
