Manchester United's dismal form continues to spiral as they welcome high-flying Aston Villa to Old Trafford in a clash that could determine Villa's Champions League fate.
The Red Devils, guaranteed their worst Premier League finish ever and coming off a deflating Europa League defeat to Tottenham, face a Villa side that has won eight of their last nine matches and appears poised to capitalize on United's goal-scoring drought.
With United failing to score in their last three matches and Villa keeping clean sheets in four of their last five away games, Unai Emery's men look well-positioned to secure the vital three points they need to keep their top-four hopes alive.
Manchester Utd vs. Aston Villa prediction: who will win?
For today's Manchester Utd vs Aston Villa matchup, our predictive model gives Villa a 76.67% chance of defeating United.
Pre-game probabilities
Aston Villa
Moneyline
Win %
76.67%
23.33%
Manchester Utd
Aston Villa: 76.67% win probability
- Superior form (WWWLW in recent matches, compared to United's LLLDL)
- Stronger attacking threat (58 goals scored this season, significantly more than United's 42)
- Better defensive record (49 goals conceded compared to United's 54, despite playing at a similar league position)
Manchester Utd: 23.33% win probability
- Poor recent form (LLLDL in last five matches, winning just once)
- Defensive fragility (54 goals conceded, ranking 16th in the league defensively)
- Struggling attack (Only 42 goals scored all season, the 4th lowest total in the league)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts. Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts..
| Manchester Utd | Aston Villa | Draw | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result |
Manchester Utd vs. Aston Villa preview
Manchester United's dire Europa League final defeat to Tottenham has compounded what is already their worst Premier League season on record, with Ruben Amorim's side looking bereft of confidence and, more worryingly, goals.
Aston Villa arrive at Old Trafford with Champions League qualification in their sights, having won eight of their last nine matches while displaying defensive solidity that's seen them keep clean sheets in four of their last five away games.
The contrast in form couldn't be starker – United have failed to score in their last three outings while Villa's attack, spearheaded by Ollie Watkins who has netted in crucial recent wins, continues to find ways past opposition defenses.
Villa's midfield dynamo Boubacar Kamara, fresh off scoring against Spurs, should find space against a United side missing several key defenders including Lisandro Martínez.
For United, Bruno Fernandes remains their best hope of creativity, but with Joshua Zirkzee sidelined through injury, converting chances has become a glaring issue for the Red Devils.
The return of Jacob Ramsey from suspension gives Unai Emery another weapon in his tactical arsenal as Villa look to secure only their second win at Old Trafford in recent memory and cement their place among Europe's elite next season.
Manchester Utd vs. Aston Villa form
Manchester Utd vs. Aston Villa head to head
Manchester Utd
80%
Aston Villa
20%
Oct 6, 2024
Aston Villa
0 : 0
Manchester Utd
Feb 11, 2024
Aston Villa
1 : 2
Manchester Utd
Dec 26, 2023
Manchester Utd
3 : 2
Aston Villa
Apr 30, 2023
Manchester Utd
1 : 0
Aston Villa
Nov 10, 2022
Manchester Utd
4 : 2
Aston Villa
Nov 6, 2022
Aston Villa
3 : 1
Manchester Utd
