The New York Knicks (42-23) welcome a slumping Miami Heat (29-36) squad to Madison Square Garden in what could be a pivotal matchup for both teams' playoff aspirations.
While the Knicks have been clicking on offense, ranking 4th in the NBA with a 48.9% field goal percentage, Miami's recent eight-losses-in-nine-games skid has exposed their offensive woes, with the team sitting 25th in scoring at 109.9 points per game.
The stage is set for an intense Eastern Conference battle as the home team Knicks look to capitalize on their home court advantage against a Heat squad desperate to snap their losing streak.
New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat prediction: who will win?
For tonight's New York Knicks vs Miami Heat matchup, our predictive model gives the Knicks a 62.33% chance of defeating the Heat.
Pre-game probabilities
New York Knicks
Moneyline
Win %
62.33%
37.67%
Miami Heat
New York Knicks: 62.33% win probability
- Superior offensive output (7705 points scored vs Heat's 7323)
- Better defensive efficiency (7421 points against vs Heat's 7416 despite fewer games)
- Stronger overall record (42-24 vs Heat's 29-38)
Miami Heat: 37.67% win probability
- Current cold streak (LLLLL in recent form)
- Struggling offense (lowest scoring team in playoff contention with 7323 points)
- Poor road performance (29 wins vs Knicks' 42 wins overall)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| New York Knicks | Miami Heat | |
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| Moneyline |
New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat preview
The struggling Miami Heat roll into Madison Square Garden looking to snap their brutal seven-game losing streak, with their recent 34-point drubbing by the Grizzlies still fresh in their minds.
Tyler Herro's been a bright spot for Miami despite their slump, coming off a 31-point performance where he shot a blistering 56% from the floor, though he'll need more help from his supporting cast - especially Duncan Robinson, who put up a goose egg in their last outing.
The Knicks aren't exactly firing on all cylinders either, dropping four of their last six, but they've shown real grit even without floor general Jalen Brunson in the lineup.
Mikal Bridges has stepped up big time for New York, fresh off a 33-point explosion where he shot an efficient 62% from the field, while Karl-Anthony Towns continues to be a force with his latest 29-point, 12-rebound double-double.
The Garden's been a tough place for Miami lately, and with the Knicks' fourth-ranked offense clicking at 48.9% from the field, the Heat's 25th-ranked scoring attack has their work cut out for them.
Keep an eye on the battle of the boards - New York's league-leading defensive rebounding could prove decisive against a Heat team that's been struggling to create second chances.
New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat form
New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat head to head
New York Knicks
80%
Miami Heat
20%
Mar 17, 2025
New York Knicks
0 : 0
Miami Heat
Mar 2, 2025
Miami Heat
112 : 116
New York Knicks
Oct 30, 2024
Miami Heat
107 : 116
New York Knicks
Apr 2, 2024
Miami Heat
109 : 99
New York Knicks
Jan 27, 2024
New York Knicks
125 : 109
Miami Heat
Nov 25, 2023
New York Knicks
100 : 98
Miami Heat
