The Toronto Maple Leafs welcome the Calgary Flames to Scotiabank Arena on Monday night in what shapes up to be a pivotal matchup for both clubs - the Leafs looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss to Ottawa while staying in the division title hunt, and the Flames desperately clinging to their wild card hopes.
Recent form tells contrasting tales, with Toronto's high-powered offense averaging 3.5 goals over their last ten games despite some inconsistent results, while Calgary's last-ranked scoring attack has managed just two goals or fewer in six of their past eight contests.
The Scotiabank Arena crowd will be eager to see if their Maple Leafs can replicate their dominant 6-3 victory from the teams' first meeting this season, as the home team looks to silence a Flames squad that's dropped four of their last five road games.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Calgary Flames prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Toronto Maple Leafs vs Calgary Flames matchup, our predictive model gives the Leafs a 57.33% chance of defeating the Flames.
Toronto Maple Leafs: 57.33% win probability
- Superior offensive output (210 goals scored vs Flames' 169)
- Better overall record (39 wins vs 30 wins in similar games played)
- Stronger position in standings (4th vs 10th in respective conferences)
Calgary Flames: 42.67% win probability
- Struggling offense (169 goals scored, third-lowest in Western Conference)
- Poor recent form (LLWLW in last 5 games)
- Negative goal differential (-21 compared to Leafs' +13)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Calgary Flames odds
Here are the latest odds for the NHL matchup between the visiting Calgary Flames and home team Toronto Maple Leafs, set to face off on Monday, March 17.
Toronto Maple Leafs | Calgary Flames | |
---|---|---|
Moneyline | -205 (via bet365 US) | +180 (via Caesars Sportsbook) |
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Calgary Flames preview
The struggling Calgary Flames head to Scotiabank Arena for a crucial matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs, with both teams desperate to shake off recent setbacks.
The Flames' playoff hopes hang by a thread as they sit just two points out of a wild card spot, though their offensive woes continue with a league-worst 2.6 goals per game average.
Toronto's recent home stand hasn't gone according to plan, with the Leafs hearing boos from the faithful after dropping Saturday's contest against Ottawa - their fifth loss in six games.
Keep an eye on Nazem Kadri, who's found his groove with five points in his last five games for Calgary, while the Leafs' William Nylander looks to build on his impressive six-point streak over the same span.
Young netminder Dustin Wolf has been a revelation for the Flames, sporting a stellar .915 save percentage, but he'll have his hands full against Toronto's potent offense that lit up Calgary for six goals in their previous meeting.
The Leafs' defensive struggles could be their Achilles' heel, having surrendered 22 goals in their last five games while ranking 25th in shots allowed per game.
With Toronto's high-octane offense averaging 3.5 goals over their last ten games and Calgary's desperate push for a playoff spot, this cross-conference tilt promises plenty of fireworks at both ends of the ice.
Key stats
- 1Toronto sits 4th in Eastern Conference with 81 points from 66 games, while Calgary ranks 10th in Western with 71 points from 65 games
- 2Maple Leafs' recent form shows concerning LLWLL streak, matching Flames' similarly poor LLWLW run
- 3Toronto holds superior goal difference (+13) compared to Calgary's negative differential (-21)
- 4Maple Leafs average 3.18 goals per game versus Flames' 2.60, suggesting stronger offensive capabilities
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Calgary Flames form


Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Calgary Flames head to head
Toronto Maple Leafs
83%
Calgary Flames
17%
Feb 5, 2025
Calgary Flames
3 : 6
Toronto Maple Leafs
Jan 19, 2024
Calgary Flames
3 : 4
Toronto Maple Leafs
Nov 11, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs
5 : 4
Calgary Flames
Mar 3, 2023
Calgary Flames
1 : 2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Dec 11, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs
5 : 4
Calgary Flames
Feb 11, 2022
Calgary Flames
5 : 2
Toronto Maple Leafs